Trade and The Tariff Man

Trade and The Tariff Man

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I was inspired to write based on a social media post from yesterday by my old friend and stalwart colleague, Rob Bartenstein, the CEO of Kestra Wealth Management. “The news media may or may not be the enemy of the people. But it ain’t your friend. Your friend wouldn’t blare negative sh!t [my edit] at you all day punctuated with …

Recession Emotional Fire Drill

Recession and Emotional Fire Drill

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Something that has people worried right now is all the talk about the yield curve and its predictive value for calling a future recession.  But is it really that great of a tool? To start, let’s look at what are considered leading economic indicators.  Here’s a list of the ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) (for the …

When the Yield Curve Inverts

When the Yield Curve Inverts

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury interest rate is referred to as “the spread”. When this number goes negative, the 2-year interest rate is higher than the 10-year interest rate.  It always spells trouble. The markets are reacting to the spread shrinking. See the downward trending line on the right-hand side of the chart below.  It’s easy to …