Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been tagged as “Recession”
I received a lot of great feedback and encouragement on yesterday’s video, and wanted to further dive into two questions that have come up: What did I mean by “distortion”? Why does a yield curve actually cause a recession? Interesting to note that the current inversion process is very different from the past. In the past we have had inflation …
Putting things into perspective…There are trillions of dollars of debt that are exposed to negative interest rates. (For example, this means, when you give the bank $100 bucks, they give you $96 back.) That sucks! The U.S. has the safest and best paying bonds in the world. So people are taking their money out of negative interest rate environments …
Sometimes we forget about the power of time. Big historical moments are memories in our lives, but we tend to live in the present…or in the past few weeks. We are bombarded by quarterly earnings, GDP, employment reports, market pull backs, and the never-ending news cycle. The list of things grabbing our attention is long. In fact, it’s infinite. It …
I want to write something, but I keep staring at my screen. It happens. It happens a lot more since I’ve stopped writing a “Weekly Market Summary.” I’ve graduated from that. It was great when I started writing because I had a topic ready for every weekend. But when looking back it’s all blah blah blah. No one cared. I …
When Will the Next Recession Happen? Last week we saw the yield curve invert and it sent the expected panic through the market. The big question now – when will the next recession happen? First, here’s what everyone freaked out about: the yields between the 10-year and the 3-month Treasuries went negative. Every recession since 1962 has seen this condition happen before the start of a recession; however, not every inversion has …
My mantra remains the same and frankly it always will: If you have a need for cash over the next 18-or-so months, you should already have it raised. Reflect back to Christmas Eve of 2018. Were you awake at night thinking over your losses that began to materialize in October 2018, telling yourself you wish you had made better decisions? …
You know we are in an economic expansion, right? Yes, despite the recent drawdown in equity prices, we are in an economic expansion…and remember, a slowdown is not the same as a recession. How much further can the U.S. expansion go? Frankly, no one knows. It could extend beyond the consensus of 2020. Here are three reasons why the U.S. …
I was inspired to write based on a social media post from yesterday by my old friend and stalwart colleague, Rob Bartenstein, the CEO of Kestra Wealth Management. “The news media may or may not be the enemy of the people. But it ain’t your friend. Your friend wouldn’t blare negative sh!t [my edit] at you all day punctuated with …
THESE. THINGS. HAPPEN. Here are some cold hard facts: So far, the S&P 500 is down 8.8% for the month of October (as of Sunday, October 28, 2018). If it finishes here, it will be the worst month since February of 2009 and the worst October since 2008. Remember those months? Did you know that during the third quarter (the …
The President recently went off about the Fed raising interest rates. He had a lot to say across several TV appearances, one comment being, “The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.” There is quite a bit of reporting on this, so I’ll try to get straight to the …
As a passenger on a commercial aircraft, you probably don’t have an expert level of understanding of all the inputs that go into a safe flight. You board the plane and just have confidence that everything has been taken care of by competent, well-trained people. Here are a few things off the top of my head that go into a …
Something that has people worried right now is all the talk about the yield curve and its predictive value for calling a future recession. But is it really that great of a tool? To start, let’s look at what are considered leading economic indicators. Here’s a list of the ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) (for the …
