The Next Recession

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

When Will the Next Recession Happen?  Last week we saw the yield curve invert and it sent the expected panic through the market. The big question now – when will the next recession happen?  First, here’s what everyone freaked out about: the yields between the 10-year and the 3-month Treasuries went negative. Every recession since 1962 has seen this condition happen before the start of a recession; however, not every inversion has …

Recession Fears and the Current Market

Recession Fears and the Current Market

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

You know we are in an economic expansion, right?  Yes, despite the recent drawdown in equity prices, we are in an economic expansion…and remember, a slowdown is not the same as a recession. How much further can the U.S. expansion go?  Frankly, no one knows. It could extend beyond the consensus of 2020. Here are three reasons why the U.S. …

Trade and The Tariff Man

Trade and The Tariff Man

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I was inspired to write based on a social media post from yesterday by my old friend and stalwart colleague, Rob Bartenstein, the CEO of Kestra Wealth Management. “The news media may or may not be the enemy of the people. But it ain’t your friend. Your friend wouldn’t blare negative sh!t [my edit] at you all day punctuated with …

Forcast a Recession

How to Forecast and Manage a Recession

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

As a passenger on a commercial aircraft, you probably don’t have an expert level of understanding of all the inputs that go into a safe flight.  You board the plane and just have confidence that everything has been taken care of by competent, well-trained people.  Here are a few things off the top of my head that go into a …

Recession Emotional Fire Drill

Recession and Emotional Fire Drill

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Something that has people worried right now is all the talk about the yield curve and its predictive value for calling a future recession.  But is it really that great of a tool? To start, let’s look at what are considered leading economic indicators.  Here’s a list of the ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) (for the …