Trade and The Tariff Man

Trade and The Tariff Man

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I was inspired to write based on a social media post from yesterday by my old friend and stalwart colleague, Rob Bartenstein, the CEO of Kestra Wealth Management. “The news media may or may not be the enemy of the people. But it ain’t your friend. Your friend wouldn’t blare negative sh!t [my edit] at you all day punctuated with …

Forcast a Recession

How to Forecast and Manage a Recession

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

As a passenger on a commercial aircraft, you probably don’t have an expert level of understanding of all the inputs that go into a safe flight.  You board the plane and just have confidence that everything has been taken care of by competent, well-trained people.  Here are a few things off the top of my head that go into a …

Recession Emotional Fire Drill

Recession and Emotional Fire Drill

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Something that has people worried right now is all the talk about the yield curve and its predictive value for calling a future recession.  But is it really that great of a tool? To start, let’s look at what are considered leading economic indicators.  Here’s a list of the ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) (for the …

Worried About a Recession

Worried About a Recession?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Let’s look at the facts:  The yield curve is not inverted.  The lag between inversion and recession is months not days, as you can read about in our April blog post.    Retail Sales were at an all-time high in November…ALL. TIME. HIGH.    New Home Sales hit a 10-year high in November.  They were not much lower when recorded in April.     Wage Growth is strong.  Unemployment Claims are at a 49-year low.   Personal Consumption is strong.  Durable Goods are strong.  Inflation is still at 2%…which is fine.  …

When the Yield Curve Inverts

When the Yield Curve Inverts

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury interest rate is referred to as “the spread”. When this number goes negative, the 2-year interest rate is higher than the 10-year interest rate.  It always spells trouble. The markets are reacting to the spread shrinking. See the downward trending line on the right-hand side of the chart below.  It’s easy to …

Which Is Worse

Which is Worse?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

All weekend long I saw a lot of news that basically boiled down to one question – which is worse, a yield curve that is flattening or bond yields that are going up? When the Fed raises interest rates (by raising the federal funds rate), they are signaling that they have faith in the economy. They are also giving themselves …