stock market predictions

When the Cost of Being Wrong is Zero

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

It’s the fourth quarter of 2019 and predictions on where the market will end up at the end of the year are popping up all over.  The problem with these predictions is that there is no cost for being wrong. Take for example an article in last weekend’s Barron’s, where they published the “Big Money Poll”.  Here’s the first paragraph: …

Vlog: What Will Your Day Look Like in a Bear Market?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Important Disclosure Information Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, …

Monument Wealth Management Vlog

Vlog: Inversion Aversion

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I received a lot of great feedback and encouragement on yesterday’s video, and wanted to further dive into two questions that have come up: What did I mean by “distortion”? Why does a yield curve actually cause a recession? Interesting to note that the current inversion process is very different from the past. In the past we have had inflation …

Vlog: The Yield Curve Distortion

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

 What is the Yield Curve Distortion? Putting things into perspective…There are trillions of dollars of debt that are exposed to negative interest rates. (For example, this means, when you give the bank $100 bucks, they give you $96 back.) That sucks! The U.S. has the safest and best paying bonds in the world.  So people are taking their money …

Lifetime Milestones & The Power of Time

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Sometimes we forget about the power of time.  Big historical moments are memories in our lives, but we tend to live in the present…or in the past few weeks.  We are bombarded by quarterly earnings, GDP, employment reports, market pull backs, and the never-ending news cycle. The list of things grabbing our attention is long. In fact, it’s infinite. It …

The Current State of Things

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I want to write something, but I keep staring at my screen.  It happens.  It happens a lot more since I’ve stopped writing a “Weekly Market Summary.”  I’ve graduated from that.  It was great when I started writing because I had a topic ready for every weekend. But when looking back it’s all blah blah blah. No one cared. I …

The Next Recession

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

When Will the Next Recession Happen? Last week we saw the yield curve invert and it sent the expected panic through the market. The big question now – when will the next recession happen?  First, here’s what everyone freaked out about: the yields between the 10-year and the 3-month Treasuries went negative. Every recession since 1962 has seen this condition happen before the start of a recession; however, not every inversion has …

Recession Fears and the Current Market

Recession Fears and the Current Market

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

You know we are in an economic expansion, right?  Yes, despite the recent drawdown in equity prices, we are in an economic expansion…and remember, a slowdown is not the same as a recession. How much further can the U.S. expansion go?  Frankly, no one knows. It could extend beyond the consensus of 2020. Here are three reasons why the U.S. …

Trade and The Tariff Man

Trade and The Tariff Man

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I was inspired to write based on a social media post from yesterday by my old friend and stalwart colleague, Rob Bartenstein, the CEO of Kestra Wealth Management. “The news media may or may not be the enemy of the people. But it ain’t your friend. Your friend wouldn’t blare negative sh!t [my edit] at you all day punctuated with …