stock market predictions

When the Cost of Being Wrong is Zero

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

It’s the fourth quarter of 2019 and predictions on where the market will end up at the end of the year are popping up all over.  The problem with these predictions is that there is no cost for being wrong. Take for example an article in last weekend’s Barron’s, where they published the “Big Money Poll”.  Here’s the first paragraph: …

Economic Cycle

Vlog: The Economic Cycle – How it Works in Everyday Language

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

A lot of people ask how our MONCON Recession Plan works.  I’m going to refrain from discussing the exact data it looks at, but in general, it’s data that are representing the economic cycle. Economic cycles have a fairly predictable chain that can provide signs of accelerations or decelerations – but problems start when we look at actions that have …

Lifetime Milestones & The Power of Time

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Sometimes we forget about the power of time.  Big historical moments are memories in our lives, but we tend to live in the present…or in the past few weeks.  We are bombarded by quarterly earnings, GDP, employment reports, market pull backs, and the never-ending news cycle. The list of things grabbing our attention is long. In fact, it’s infinite. It …

“You forgot ugly, lazy, disrespectful…”

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The extended Labor Day weekend afforded me the opportunity to re-watch one of the classic movies from the ’80, The Breakfast Club.  The title of today’s report is a quote from that movie and when I heard it, it made me think of the recent economic news and market action – I thought it was appropriate for today’s truncated weekly Monument …

Friday the 13th concluded a dismal week in the markets.

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The S&P ended the week down 3.8% and at one point the intra-day low reached back to mid-June levels before recovering.  The economic news of last week contained a clear acknowledgment by the Federal Reserves’ Open Market Committee that the economic recovery was not moving forward as they had anticipated and that its pace would be more modest over the …

Job losses- marginally bad news for all, but it was worse for the double dip bears.

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

August completed its first week with the markets finishing higher despite the jobs report on Friday. This news seems to confirm our thought that the economy has hit a soft patch.  While the economic data was not particularly strong– especially the jobs report– it was not weak enough for anyone to declare that a double dip recession is upon us …

Double Dip, No… Soft Patch, Yup

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

July ended up being the best month of the past year for the S&P 500 when it posted a 6.9% return for the month.  The combination of good earnings reports and decent economic news contributed to the month-long rally.  However, the market action last week was basically flat as the Gross Domestic Product was released showing economic growth had slowed …