Our “Off The Wall” Blog
is now Monument #Unfiltered

Subscribe below to receive our unique, straight-forward, unfiltered wealth advice delivered straight to your inbox.

Do You Have a Crystal Ball? Nobody Does.

For the first time in a very long time, strategists were predicting a negative year for the S&P 500 in 2023. Just look at this chart showing their predictions over the past 20ish years.

Predictions Chart

Well… that’s not what happened. Instead, we enter December with the S&P 500 up +20.28% (as of 11/27).

YTD Total Returns Chart

So why should you care that these “experts” got it wrong? Because the investors who reacted to their forecasts and tweaked their portfolio to reduce equity, or worse, completely sold out of their equity positions in January missed out on what’s turned into a strong year for market performance.

I’m sure the analysts behind these predictions are intelligent, but no one has a magic crystal ball.

At Monument Wealth, we believe you should never make investment allocation decisions based on the short-term, or one-year, forecasts put out by the big, hotshot Wall Street firms – it’s illogical.

In all fairness, while the analysts missed it this time around, they have occasionally been right in the past. And chances are they’ll get it right again at some point in the future but there’s no way to know when. I don’t want to be predicting when their predictions will hit.

In fact, there is never a reason to even really try. Ok, well, except maybe if it’s just for fun or a Jimmy John’s sandwich. Listen to our Q1 2023 market recap here with our thoughts from earlier this year.

While we have fun making predictions on our quarterly market recap podcasts, we never let our feelings, or anyone else’s, dictate our portfolio decisions.

In my opinion, financial market predictions are an impossible task, and even if you are right, it’s probably more due to random luck than true skill. They say it’s better to be lucky than good, but what’s more important is to know when you’ve gotten lucky.

Being “lucky” isn’t a cornerstone for a solid plan. It doesn’t involve a repeatable process and if you don’t realize your own luck, you may walk right back into the same scenario you’ve experienced before, but get a drastically different, and possibly worse, outcome. Remember, your investment allocation should always be determined by your unique financial plan, situation & goals.

Here’s a good rule of thumb: Read predictions for fun and to gain a little perspective from smart minds, but don’t base decisions on them.  No one has facts about the future. If you haven’t had any major changes in your financial life, you likely don’t need to make any significant changes to your allocation – even in volatile markets.

It’s completely normal for investors to feel uncomfortable at times, so don’t hesitate to reach out to us at Monument if you’re feeling this way. If you don’t feel like you are getting good advice, come get it from us.

Nate W. photo

Nate W. Tonsager, CIPM

Private Wealth Advisor

What comes to mind when you think of Wisconsin? Farmland? Cheese? Growing up in a small Wisconsin town, Nate can confirm that the cheese is as good as they say it is, but what shaped him most was being a part of a strong, close-knit community with a desire to help your neighbors. Nate got his first taste of the financial industry during high school...

Learn more ...

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. No amount of prior experience or success should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Monument is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.

A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at www.monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures. Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s website or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Please Remember: If you are a Monument client, please contact Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.  Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please Also Remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Get Monument #Unfiltered: Our Free Private Wealth Newsletter

Our no B.S. wealth advice delivered 2x per month, max. Tuned specifically for busy, high-net-worth business professionals and investors who want straightforward advice without the fluff.