Worried About a Recession

Worried About a Recession?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Share this post!

Let’s look at the facts: 

  1. The yield curve is not inverted.  The lag between inversion and recession is months not days, as you can read about in our April blog post.   
  2. Retail Sales were at an all-time high in November…ALL. TIME. HIGH.   
  3. New Home Sales hit a 10-year high in November.  They were not much lower when recorded in April.    
  4. Wage Growth is strong. 
  5. Unemployment Claims are at a 49-year low.  
  6. Personal Consumption is strong. 
  7. Durable Goods are strong. 
  8. Inflation is still at 2%…which is fine. 
  9. GDP Growth is close to a 3-year high. 

We are in a period of modest growth.  Earnings crushed it again last quarter yet share prices have fallen from January. This means shares are at a better value now than they were in December. In fact, they are in line with the 25-year average forward Price/Earnings ratio of around 16x. 

Recessions are a VERY low probability when the economy looks as we have described above.  If we were to put this into the military’s DEFCON alert state, where a reading of DEFCON 5 is the Department of Defense’s lowest state of readiness and DEFCON 1 is when nuclear war is imminent, we are at DEFCON 5.   

Keep looking forward, 

Dave 

Monument-Wealth-Management-Blog-Subscribe

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. All indexes referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument Wealth Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

About the Author
David B. Armstrong, CFA

David B. Armstrong, CFA

David B. Armstrong, CFA, is a President and Co-Founder of Monument Wealth Management. Along with his role as the firm’s chief investment strategist and portfolio manager, Armstrong is viewed as an industry leader in several areas including innovative practice management, discretionary asset management, digital marketing and social media. Dave is the writer of Monument Wealth Management's weekly "Off the Wall" Financial Blog and Market Commentary, and is frequently sought after by journalists and event coordinators. Visit his full biography here.

Share this post!