Explore Our
“Off The Wall” Blog

Unique, straight-forward, unfiltered opinion on topics of concern for individuals with newfound wealth.

Some of Wall Street’s Best Strategists Have Changed Their Outlooks–What Now?

Some of Wall Street’s best strategists have changed their outlooks – what now?

There is nothing wrong with forecasting…it only becomes a problem when you try to draw your own conclusions (also a forecast) and use it to shift an investment strategy. I see people get into trouble with that.

Why?

Because even when you are smart as fu*k, it’s hard to be right when forecasting.

David Kostin of Goldman Sachs is one of the best strategists on Wall Street–and I’m stating an actual fact here, 100% proven by just me to be one of the best, so I am indeed using a real fact {insert sarcasm} no matter what data scientists say.

Said more conversationally, I think he’s smart as fu*k.

Back around May 11th, he published an outlook…a forecast…where he felt that pessimism would once again grip the market and send the index back down to a level of 2,400. At that time, the S&P 500 was around a level of 2,900 so that would have equated to about a 17-18% sell-off.

On Friday, May 29th, he published a new outlook where he changed his three-month S&P 500 prediction from that previous level of 2,400 up to 2,750.

His rationale for that 17-18% pullback was ground in analytical rigor.

His rationale for moving the outlook up to 2,750 is grounded in the same rigor.

His year-end forecast is for the S&P 500 is 3,000.

Today, the S&P 500 is hovering around 3,050.

Meanwhile, as Kostin and Goldman shift from bearish to bullish, we see JP Morgan’s strategist Marko Kolanovic, who encouraged investors to buy the dip in March, shift his outlook from bullish to more bearish over political and trade concerns.

Marko, yeah, I think he’s smart as fu*k, too.

And remember Bill Ackman? That guy is no dummy either. His forecast from back in March?

Ackman Hell is Coming News

I’m not saying they WERE right or wrong, I’m not saying they WILL be right or wrong…, in fact, it’s rarely about being right and wrong. I’m just saying that their outlooks are forecasts and it’s hard to be right when forecasting.

Forecasting is mostly luck and in case you didn’t/don’t watch the Showtime series “Billions,” last night’s episode (Season 5, Episode 5) had a very short yet amazing scene related to this:

Winston, (the algorithm guru played by Will Roland) states at the beginning of a celebratory scene, “I think it’s bad luck to be empty-handed for the toast.”

Rian, (Ryan but with an “i”, the irreverent new hire to the newly formed Taylor Mason Carbon played by Eva Victor) responds with, “Luck? There’s probability, plausibility, and actuality. Luck is superstition. Luck is lazy math.”

“God, I love it!” I screamed as my wife said, “Wait, what? Why?”  I just said, “Ha, you never read my blogs,” as I was rewinding.

It’s best to take luck out of the equation and focus on putting patience, discipline, and time on your side. And a good wealth plan and good advice really helps with that. As I said last week:

Investing is rarely just about making more money. It’s usually more of a balance between protecting capital, planning for cash needs, AND making more money.

At Monument, our mission is to help our clients maximize their probability of long-term financial success, confident in our view that just because you have a complicated financial situation doesn’t mean you’ll benefit from overcomplicated financial advice.

If you have stumbled upon this blog and like the way we frame our advice, reach out if you need or are looking for help.

While we do our best work with individual investors who come to us when their assets are in the $1-10M range, we know incredible advisors we can introduce you to if that’s not you and you still need help.

Keep looking forward,

Dave

 

What’s Next?

Investing Tips During COVID19 with David B. Armstrong

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.

All indexes referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.

A copy of Monument Wealth Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

David B. photo

David B. Armstrong, CFA

President & Co-Founder

Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....

Learn more ...

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument.

Please remember that if you are a Monument client, it remains your responsibility to advise Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures/. Please Note: IF you are a Monument client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s web site or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Stay up to date!

Subscribe to our “Off the Wall” Blog for articles and videos on all things wealth management, by all members of our Team. Unlike Facebook, we will never share your data with anyone.