“Off The Wall” Blog
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The Fed’s 9-1 decision the other day to leave the policy rate unchanged was not a shock or surprise to anyone. But, the Fed did telegraph a polarity shift to the markets and equities gained slightly on future rate cut optimism (the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%) while the 10-year yield declined to around 2.03%.
I’m guessing there is a 95% certainty the Fed will begin reducing rates sometime during the next 3 months.
I mean, when I started out in this industry, I would have NEVER told someone I was guessing. But now, I realize everyone is guessing when it comes to interest rates.
If you asked anyone in 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 or 18 where they expected interest rates to be in the future, they most likely said, “Higher.”
Yet the chart below of the 10-year Treasury Yield I created in Koyfin shows reality…
Sure, rates have gone up and down, but are they really predictable? Is guessing even worth it? And more specifically, is it worth it for investors who are just trying to grow their money?
Here’s the S&P 500 over the same time frame as the 10–year (with yesterday’s 0.30% gain showing in upper left corner).
If you are a guest on CNBC or you earn a living writing or opining on the Fed, knock yourself out and predict away. But I’ve got news for you – most people don’t give a second thought about your predictions…
Because you are guessing.
If you are sitting on cash and trying to figure out if you should invest in a bond portfolio for the long-term, I get it. There is some benefit to taking a look at the probabilities of interest rates going up and down in the near term.
But if you are anything like the people we work with every day and you are spending a lot of emotional energy and time trying to predict interest rates, I’ll share my advice…
Keep looking forward,
Important Disclosure Information
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.
All indexes referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.
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David B. Armstrong, CFA
President & Co-Founder
Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....
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