David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
The last few months have felt like a stress test.
Corrections, geopolitical headlines, people on CNBC telling you the end is near… it’s hard not to carry some of that weight around in your portfolio. Caution feels safer than conviction right now.
And I understand why. Nobody wants to lean into the market right before the rug pulls.
But I read the latest Goldman Sachs US Strategy Views piece from Ben Snider (April 20, 2026), and it’s worth sitting with.
According to Goldman, the S&P 500 has rallied 12% since March 30… the sharpest rebound since April 2020 and, before that, March 2009. They’re calling for the index to hit 7600 by year-end, which implies another 7% upside from here.
Frequent readers know my thoughts on predictions…there are no facts about the future. So, Goldman’s target could be wrong.
But the reasoning behind the call is what I want to dig into.
The Data Shows Growth Estimates Actually Went Up
Goldman is calling for 12% earnings growth this year and 10% next year. Earnings estimates have actually risen 4% since late January, right through all the volatility we just lived through.
Yes…through all the recent noise, estimates went up.
Corporate behavior tells the same story. According to Goldman, year-to-date share buyback authorizations have hit a record $422 billion, and announced merger and acquisition volume is up more than 100% year-over-year.
This means companies are putting real money behind what they see. That’s a different story than what you’re getting from scrolling the news.
Here’s the part nobody’s talking about
Goldman’s US Sentiment Indicator bottomed at -0.9 in late March. It now sits at +0.8.
That sounds like a big swing, but it’s not. Past “overextended” rallies pushed that indicator up to +2.8…it’s nowhere near that.
Translation: prices have come back, but investors haven’t.
Positioning is still cautious, and the mood is still defensive.
That’s the disconnect I want you to sit with. The data is firm and corporate action is aggressive… but investor behavior is still bracing for impact.
So, what am I actually saying?
I’m not telling you to pile into the market. I’m not telling you to change your plan based on one research report.
What I am saying is this…cash beyond 12 to 18 months of reserves is doing a different job than it was designed to do. At Monument, we build cash buffers so you don’t have to sell anything during a drawdown. That’s it.
If cash has quietly crept past that 18-month mark, it’s worth asking why. Sometimes the answer is “I’m waiting to feel more certain.” Fair enough. Just know that feeling may not arrive.
The real question
The question isn’t whether the market goes higher. I don’t know, Goldman doesn’t know, nobody knows.
The better question is whether your portfolio still reflects the plan you built it around. Or whether the last few months of noise nudged it somewhere you didn’t intend.
One is a strategy question, the other is an investor behavior question. Both are worth answering on your own timeline, not the market’s.
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Market Commentary
Maybe You’re Not Bullish Enough
David B. Armstrong, CFA
David B. Armstrong, CFA®
David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
The last few months have felt like a stress test.
Corrections, geopolitical headlines, people on CNBC telling you the end is near… it’s hard not to carry some of that weight around in your portfolio. Caution feels safer than conviction right now.
And I understand why. Nobody wants to lean into the market right before the rug pulls.
But I read the latest Goldman Sachs US Strategy Views piece from Ben Snider (April 20, 2026), and it’s worth sitting with.
According to Goldman, the S&P 500 has rallied 12% since March 30… the sharpest rebound since April 2020 and, before that, March 2009. They’re calling for the index to hit 7600 by year-end, which implies another 7% upside from here.
Frequent readers know my thoughts on predictions…there are no facts about the future. So, Goldman’s target could be wrong.
But the reasoning behind the call is what I want to dig into.
The Data Shows Growth Estimates Actually Went Up
Goldman is calling for 12% earnings growth this year and 10% next year. Earnings estimates have actually risen 4% since late January, right through all the volatility we just lived through.
Yes…through all the recent noise, estimates went up.
Corporate behavior tells the same story. According to Goldman, year-to-date share buyback authorizations have hit a record $422 billion, and announced merger and acquisition volume is up more than 100% year-over-year.
This means companies are putting real money behind what they see. That’s a different story than what you’re getting from scrolling the news.
Here’s the part nobody’s talking about
Goldman’s US Sentiment Indicator bottomed at -0.9 in late March. It now sits at +0.8.
That sounds like a big swing, but it’s not. Past “overextended” rallies pushed that indicator up to +2.8…it’s nowhere near that.
Translation: prices have come back, but investors haven’t.
Positioning is still cautious, and the mood is still defensive.
That’s the disconnect I want you to sit with. The data is firm and corporate action is aggressive… but investor behavior is still bracing for impact.
So, what am I actually saying?
I’m not telling you to pile into the market. I’m not telling you to change your plan based on one research report.
What I am saying is this…cash beyond 12 to 18 months of reserves is doing a different job than it was designed to do. At Monument, we build cash buffers so you don’t have to sell anything during a drawdown. That’s it.
If cash has quietly crept past that 18-month mark, it’s worth asking why. Sometimes the answer is “I’m waiting to feel more certain.” Fair enough. Just know that feeling may not arrive.
The real question
The question isn’t whether the market goes higher. I don’t know, Goldman doesn’t know, nobody knows.
The better question is whether your portfolio still reflects the plan you built it around. Or whether the last few months of noise nudged it somewhere you didn’t intend.
One is a strategy question, the other is an investor behavior question. Both are worth answering on your own timeline, not the market’s.
Keep looking forward,
Dave
Make life option rich.
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