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When Discipline Gets Mistaken for Indecision
One of the biggest misconceptions in investing is that great outcomes come from rigid systems or bold predictions. But that’s not how we see it.
At Monument, we believe it’s critical to stay committed to your goals. That’s the entire purpose of having an investment strategy — it sets the direction. But the path you take to get there? That’s where flexibility matters most.
Our investment models are built to adapt. They don’t try to predict where markets are going — they respond to what the data is saying right now. As that data changes, the models guide us in making evidence-based adjustments.
This month’s market volatility has naturally raised concerns, but it hasn’t changed our discipline. We don’t guess. We follow the trends.
Right now, the trend data continues to favor a defensive posture — and we’re listening to it.
What does that mean?
Instead of reinvesting just because markets are lower, we’re patiently holding cash where the model says “wait.” As always, we’ll redeploy capital once the data clearly signals a shift from defense to offense. That’s not market timing — that’s disciplined, process-driven risk management.
Sometimes, that discipline gets mistaken for indecision. But sticking to a rules-based strategy when the headlines are loud is exactly how we help our clients stay on track with their wealth goals. It’s about having the flexibility to respond to what matters.
I’ve written extensively about possibility vs. probability. (Like in this post, Why Risk Makes You Wealthy) The media loves focusing on what could happen — a crash, a recession, or inflation. Sure, all of that is technically possible. But building an investment strategy around what’s merely possible leads to anxiety, not results.
We focus on what’s probable — not just what’s possible. That means staying informed, checking assumptions, and adjusting as the data changes. Investing isn’t a one-time decision. It’s a series of thoughtful, long-term moves based on evidence, not emotion.
So, when the market feels uncertain, here’s how you can respond:
- Be firm about your goals. Stay flexible in how you reach them.
- Think in probabilities, not possibilities.
- And always remember — strategy isn’t about reacting to everything. It’s about knowing what deserves a reaction. Discipline isn’t indecision; it’s having the confidence and courage to follow the data instead of your gut.
Keep looking forward.
David B. Armstrong, CFA®
President & Co-Founder
Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....
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