“Off The Wall” Blog
Unique, straight-forward, unfiltered opinion on topics of concern for individuals with newfound wealth.
I want to take you back to a moment in time, specifically the first trading day of 2016 when the Dow closed at 17,149.
Remember January 2016? No?
By February 11, 2016, the Dow had sunk to a level of 15,660. Right around a 15% drop in value.
People were panicking and the news was filled with doom and gloom, especially given what happened in mid 2015 – a drastic summer sell-off which took the Dow from 18,312 to 15,666.
So on February 11th, 2016, I wrote a blog with what turned out to be some of my best financial advice that any investor can receive. (That’s 100% fact checked by me, by the way.)
Have patience, discipline, and a plan.
It’s fun going back five years and seeing how much my writing style has evolved…and I’m glad I’ve matured into less preachy (or dare I say even condescending) opinions. Chalk it up to my passion, I guess.
And while writing styles mature and develop over time, sometimes the best logic is timeless.
By the way, the Dow is now trading around 31,500, essentially double from that February in 2016.
So it’s an interesting exercise to think, “What was the outcome of all that panicked trading/selling?”
Or better still, “What if people actually did nothing because a wealth plan had their cash needs covered for 12 months?”
I’ll sign off with two of my favorite paragraphs from the blog.
As I wrap this up, let me be clear about one thing: I’m giving a NOWCAST rather than a FORECAST. Nowcasts are based in probability while forecasts are based in possibilities. Is it possible that the data are worse down the road, yes, absolutely…and that could mean we do have a recession later this year.
BUT RIGHT NOW the data simply do not suggest that we are going to have one and that makes the probability low. Anyone who looks at the data right now and says they think we are going to have a recession is making a guess, and if they are right down the road then they can wear the crown of being a good guesser.
Patience, discipline, and a solid financial plan leverage probabilities and relieve you of the burden of being a good guesser.
If you enjoyed that trip down memory lane of some of the best financial advice for investors, I welcome you to revisit this oldie but a goodie from August 12th, 2011, 5 topics to discuss with your financial advisor, published in US News and World Report.
Keep looking forward,
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David B. Armstrong, CFA
President & Co-Founder
Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....
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