Monument's Quick Hits

Monument’s “Quick Hits” – Q3 GDP on Tap

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  It’s a common term on the news and most people recognize it, but it is one of the broadest measures of activity we have for the economy.  GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced.

News Flash – A preliminary report on quarter three (Q3) will be released October 27th.

Here are two problems with it:

  1. It is backward looking.  The upcoming report will measure output from July through September…we are about to enter November. (Yes, Thanksgiving is basically a month away and it’s still 70 degrees.)
  2. It’s a “preliminary” report…so there will be two more revisions as more complete information is received.

Forecasts

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model, which incorporates new economic data that feeds into GDP, is projecting a 2.7% annualized growth rate as of October 24th.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 2.5%.

Remember, Q2 grew at a 3.1% annual rate.

So What?

Well, we have already entered Q4…and as mentioned, the upcoming report is already old data. As investors, we should be forward-looking, collectively trying to price in future activity.

The hurricanes likely took a temporary bite out of growth, but markets have been resilient, looking past the destruction and disturbing headlines generated by the storms.

Early indications suggest Q4 growth is accelerating – I like that.

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About the Author
David B. Armstrong, CFA

David B. Armstrong, CFA

David B. Armstrong, CFA, is a President and Co-Founder of Monument Wealth Management. Along with his role as the firm’s chief investment strategist and portfolio manager, Armstrong is viewed as an industry leader in several areas including innovative practice management, discretionary asset management, digital marketing and social media. Dave is the writer of Monument Wealth Management’s weekly “Off the Wall” Financial Blog and Market Commentary, and is frequently sought after by journalists and event coordinators. Visit his full biography here.

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