Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It’s a common term on the news and most people recognize it, but it is one of the broadest measures of activity we have for the economy. GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced.
News Flash – A preliminary report on quarter three (Q3) will be released October 27th.
Here are two problems with it:
- It is backward looking. The upcoming report will measure output from July through September…we are about to enter November. (Yes, Thanksgiving is basically a month away and it’s still 70 degrees.)
- It’s a “preliminary” report…so there will be two more revisions as more complete information is received.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model, which incorporates new economic data that feeds into GDP, is projecting a 2.7% annualized growth rate as of October 24th.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 2.5%.
Remember, Q2 grew at a 3.1% annual rate.
Well, we have already entered Q4…and as mentioned, the upcoming report is already old data. As investors, we should be forward-looking, collectively trying to price in future activity.
The hurricanes likely took a temporary bite out of growth, but markets have been resilient, looking past the destruction and disturbing headlines generated by the storms.
Early indications suggest Q4 growth is accelerating – I like that.
Important Disclosure Information
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. All indexes referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument Wealth Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.