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I told you this was gonna happen

Here they come…everyone who was just dying to be right.  But look, OF COURSE THIS WAS GONNA HAPPEN!!!! 

Intra year declines vs. calendar year returns chart

It’s called INVESTING. 

Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) summed it up in his blog from February 23, 2020.  It’s such an effective thought, I’m attaching a screenshot rather than explaining it.   

Ben Carlson Blog Post 2.23.2020 Recap

I’ve had some people scoff at my conviction…in fact, if I’m being honest, I’ve actually been fired for it.  

But you know what? We are not trying to resonate with everyone, we are just trying to resonate with SOMEONE.  And those “someones” that make up the clients of Monument, the believers, they have all done well following our convictions of patience and discipline. This includes: 

  • Our emphasis on starting out with a Private Wealth Design that answers the question, “What’s the money for?” as the blueprint for the construction of the whole financial house.  
  • Our portfolio management efforts which have created lowcost, taxefficient strategies focused on quality stocks that don’t have to be traded. 
  • Our focus on simplicity which has kept them out of the bullshit products that Wall Street firms love to sell – the ones that always tend to blow up or create some sort of liquidity problem. 
  • Our drumbeat of having the cash you need for upcoming expenditures, so you don’t have to sell in environments like this. 
  • Our analysis on recessions that has kept the panic at bay. 

This is all to their benefit.  The Believers. And the result is that they are on track to have the money for what it’s meant for—yes, even through drawdowns like this. I mean, come on, we are back to Novemberish of 2019 levels…probably back where most people wish they had invested 3 days ago. 

Proof: 

S&P 500 Total Return Level YChart

 

SPXTR Level % Change YChart

 

 

S&P 500 KoyFin Chart 

David Ingles TV Worst Days in the Last 10 Years Chart 

(Thanks @davidInglesTV for above.) 

As it relates to the selloff, Buffett said it well: “The real question is where are those businesses going to be in five or ten years?” 

As for MONCON, the levels of inputs have increased and may continue if a greater slowdown than what’s being pricedin materializes.  If the levels do continue to increase, we may see us go from a MONCON 5 to MONCON 4.  But remember, MONCON 4 is not an actionable event since it has a 50/50 chance of going back to MONCON 5.  If it were to go to MONCON 3, we would start to raise cash in our managed portfolio.  

MONCON_Recession_5

Look from peaktopeak, not from peaktovalley. In other words 

Keep looking forward. 

Dave 

 

What’s Next?

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.

All indexes referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.

A copy of Monument Wealth Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

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David B. Armstrong, CFA

President & Co-Founder

Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. No amount of prior experience or success should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Monument is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.

A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at www.monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures. Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s website or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Please Remember: If you are a Monument client, please contact Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.  Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please Also Remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

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