Happy Birthday, Mr. Bull
Mr. Bull, you are now five years old. On behalf of a grateful investing public, we wish you a Happy Birthday. Do you remember what it was like five years ago? March 9th, 2009 – that was when the S&P 500 actually touched the demonic index level of 666 before beginning its trek higher to current levels of 1,878 (as of Friday’s close).
But there’s a lot more to the current bull market than the index level. For instance did you know…
According to Bespoke Investment Group, the current S&P 500 bull market is the sixth longest on record in terms of number of days at 1,823 and if the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high after March 22nd, it will move into 5th place (1,839 days in length). If we print a new high after Memorial Day, we will see this bull market move into 4th place (1,904 days).
What will it take to be number one on the list? Another 2,671 days on top of the 1,823 already in the rear view mirror.
Oh, of course that all assumes that we don’t see a 20% correction between now and then…
More bull market thoughts below. Here’s how the big indices fared for the last week.
Here’s a quick reference chart on the bull markets from Bespoke.
Of note – two of the top five bull markets were interrupted by just a little more than three months. The bull market of 82-87 timeframe (1,839 days) was cut short by a small sell off and then Black Monday. By December of 1987, the market began its trek higher and continued for 4,494 days without reverting to a bear market.
Investors that kept their cool from late August of 1987 through early December of 1987 enjoyed a long, long run in the equity market.
Just sayin’…
Finally, also from Bespoke, (they had a great weekend report this week) did you know that while the S&P 500 is up 178% from the March low of 2009 through last Friday (yes, you read that right, 178%) the S&P 600 Index, which is a measure of small-cap stock performance, is up 275%?
That’s 100 percentage points higher than the S&P 500.
That’s a lot.
Small-cap has been a favorite sector of ours since December of 2008.
What about the other sectors we have liked since March of 2009?
Consumer Discretionary is up 325%, Tech up 200% and Industrials up 241%.
So the question now should be, “Dave, care to take a stab at who will go all the way in to win the College World Series this year?”
I’m going with the #1 ranked University of South Carolina Gamecocks…
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David B. Armstrong, CFA
President & Co-Founder
Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....
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