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The End of the Quarter

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Wow – 3 down, one to go.  Quarters that is.  Did you know that we ended last week with 7 of the past 10 trading days posting 100+ point moves in the Dow?  But really, it’s not as exciting when the Dow is at 17,000 versus when it was around 6,000.  We had some news on the employment rate last week, and I’ve got some year-to-date stats down below, too.  I’ve had a few emails asking why I have not mentioned college football in the blog yet…well, it’s because my Gamecocks are playing so poorly I can’t bring myself to even think about them on Monday.

Last week, the indices we follow all lost ground even with the comeback on Friday. Here are the weekly charts for the week.

Weekly Market Returns

Featured Image Weekly Blog 10-6-14

Weekly Sector Returns

Market Returns Imaga Weekly Blog 10-6-14

 Jobs

Well, the market really liked the news on jobs last week. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 248,000 in September, while August’s poor reading was revised up to 180,000 from the initial report of 142,000.  July was revised to 243,000 from 212,000. September’s “better-than-forecast” increase of 248,000 beat the Bloomberg consensus of 215,000 by an impressive 102,000.  Here’s a chart that shows the data smoothed out a little bit. It shows that momentum has been building, and some notable progress on job-recreation has been made.

 NonFarm Image Weekly Blog 10-6-14

The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.9% in September from 6.1% a month prior.   This is important because companies usually need employees when they are doing better.  It Seems obvious, but that’s why the market gets excited over the improved reports.

Unemployment Image Weekly Blog 10-6-14

However, there are some deeper factors at work. One of them is that the unemployment rate is decreasing because so many people have given up looking for jobs and there are still a ton of part-time workers who actually want to be full-time.  One issue is that wages are not increasing.  This is good and bad.  Employment growth without wage growth is good for the bottom line of individual companies and does not fuel inflation.  We have made this point a ton of times over the past few years but it’s VERY DIFFICULT to see inflation increasing without wage growth.  We keep our eye on this more than anything else when considering the likelihood of inflation increasing.  No inflation, no Fed rate increases…or so the thinking goes.

Returns so far this year

 Here’s a chart from JP Morgan.  The brown is last week’s returns and the green is year to date as of last Friday.  The big thing to note in the green is how much better large cap has done relative to small cap.

Style Returns Image Weekly Blog 10-6-14 

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management.  To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument Wealth Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

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David B. Armstrong, CFA

President & Co-Founder

Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument.

Please remember that if you are a Monument client, it remains your responsibility to advise Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures/. Please Note: IF you are a Monument client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.

Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s web site or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

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