I know what you’re thinking right now.

You’ve been watching your portfolio. The numbers are down. The headlines are loud. And somewhere in the back of your head, a voice is asking: should I do something?

Here’s my answer: probably not. And I’ll show you why.

This Is Not an Emergency. This Is Tuesday.

Let me give you some context that the financial media will absolutely not give you, because calm investors don’t click on ads.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a dip of 3% or more an average of 7.2 times per year. A mild 5% correction? That happens 3.4 times a year on average. A moderate 10% pullback…the kind that feels genuinely uncomfortable…happens more than once a year.

Read that again.

More than once a year. For nearly a hundred years running. Through world wars, recessions, pandemics, political crises, inflation spikes, and every flavor of market panic you can imagine.

What we’re experiencing right now is not an anomaly. It is the market working exactly the way markets work. They go up. They pull back. They go up again. That’s not a bug in the system. That is the system.

The trigger changes every time. The pattern never does.

This Is Also Why You Have a Cash Reserve

One of the things I feel most strongly about…and I’ve been saying this for over 25 years…is that the biggest threat to long-term wealth isn’t volatility. It’s being forced to sell investments at the wrong time because you need cash.

Think about what that actually means in a moment like this.

If you have a 12-to-18-month cash reserve built into your financial plan, you don’t have to make any decisions right now. You can live your normal life. Pay your bills. Take your vacations. Do whatever you planned to do. All while your portfolio sits there and waits for the market to recover.

And it will recover. It always does.

Now flip that scenario. Imagine you didn’t have that reserve. Every month during a prolonged downturn, you’d be forced to sell something…at a discount to its pre-sell off price…just to cover your expenses.

Month after month. That’s not volatility destroying your wealth. That’s you destroying your wealth because you had no choice.

The cash reserve isn’t a safety blanket. It’s a strategic tool that keeps you from making the worst decision in investing: selling when you don’t have to.

The Math on Staying Invested Is Brutal…in the Best Way

Here’s something worth sitting with.

A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1928 has grown to over $121 million based on historical returns through early 2026.

That’s not a typo.

Now here’s the kicker. If you missed just the 50 best trading days during that entire stretch…50 days out of nearly 100 years of markets…that $121 million drops to $2.6 million.

That is not a rounding error. That’s 98% of the wealth creation gone because you weren’t in the market on 50 specific days.

Here’s why that matters right now: the best days and the worst days cluster together. They happen in the same stretches of market chaos. If you sell to avoid the pain, you almost always miss the recovery too. The two are inseparable, and nobody in the financial industry likes to say that out loud because it’s a terrible pitch for doing anything.

But it’s the truth.

(Also – disclosure I wrote this Tues morning the 31st of May and jumped on a plane only to land and see the S&P 500 closed +2.9%…so, see what I mean?)

Time Is the Most Powerful Tool You Have

The data on holding periods makes this even clearer.

Going back to December 1925, a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds has produced positive returns in 100% of all 20-year periods. A 100% stock portfolio? Also 100% of all 20-year periods.

Every. Single. One.

Even looking at 10-year periods, a balanced portfolio has been positive 100% of the time. At 5 years, you’re at 98.9% of the time.

The longer you stay invested, the more the math works in your favor. Time doesn’t guarantee anything…there are no facts about the future…but the historical record is about as one-sided as it gets.

So What Should You Do Right Now?

If your financial plan hasn’t changed, your investment strategy shouldn’t change either.

I’m watching the economic data carefully. If something shifts in a way that would actually affect long-term earnings and growth, we’ll talk about it. But right now, what we’re seeing is the kind of volatility that has shown up over and over again throughout market history…and resolved the same way every time.

You have a plan. You have a cash reserve. You’re not one of those investors who has to make a desperate decision this week.

That’s not an accident. That’s the whole point.

If you’re feeling anxious about what’s happening and want to talk through it, we’re here. That’s exactly what we’re for.

But know this: this is the market doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. And you’re built to handle it.

Keep looking forward,

Dave

Data sources: Ned Davis Research, Inc.; S&P Dow Jones Indices. Analysis periods: S&P 500 correction frequency based on daily data 01/03/1928–03/30/2026 (EDU_8). S&P 500 best/worst days analysis based on daily total return data 01/04/1928–03/30/2026 (EDU_53). Probability of positive returns based on monthly data December 1925–February 2026 (EDU_13). Past performance is not indicative of future results.