David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
“When things go wrong, don’t go with them.” —Elvis Presley
If you checked your portfolio Monday afternoon and felt a little sick to your stomach, you weren’t alone. The S&P 500 dropped more than 2%, and it felt like one of those weeks was shaping up.
But then Tuesday happened.
The market turned on a dime, ripping higher by over 2%. By Wednesday morning? A 2%+ gap up before the market even opened. All in, this week started with a sequence that’s never happened before in SPY’s history: a 2%+ drop on Monday, a 2%+ gain on Tuesday, and a 2%+ gap higher on Wednesday.
This is real-world volatility.
Market Volatility ≠ Crisis
The type of market action we saw this week isn’t just rare—it’s historically significant.
Since 1953, a sequence like this week’s (2%+ drop followed by a 2%+ gain while under the 200-day moving average) has only happened 22 other times. The chart from Bespoke Investment Group below shows the S&P 500 since 1953 and a red dot for each occurrence.
And those reversals? They’ve often marked the early stages of strong long-term recoveries. One year later, markets were up over 20% on average—with a 91% success rate.1
The market can always move lower—that’s a possibility. But I like to focus on probabilities, not possibilities.
The probability of long-term gains in scenarios like these is heavily in favor of investors who hold steady. That 91% success rate isn’t trivia—it’s a signal.
It’s not unlike how a casino operates. The house doesn’t need to win every hand—it just needs a consistent edge. Staying invested during volatility the same kind of advantage.
In chaotic weeks like this one, it’s our job to separate the signal from the noise.
Great Leaders Manage Through Chaos
Good leaders use data to guide their decisions. For us, the data is critically important when deciding whether to reinvest after selling stocks vs. holding cash.
We may sell a security, but that doesn’t automatically mean we buy something else right away. Sometimes, the data says: “Not yet.” That’s not guesswork—it’s informed discipline.
Think of it like a cash flow crunch you see coming months out. You don’t double down on ego and keep spending like nothing’s wrong. You pivot early — cut costs, renegotiate terms, delay expansion — so you can weather it and come out stronger on the other side.
Holding cash during a market downturn works the same way. It’s not about fear or ego—it’s about managing risk until the environment improves.
That said, our investment team doesn’t pretend the data is a crystal ball. It won’t tell us the exact moment to start collecting cash, nor will it give us a blinking green light for the perfect time to buy back in. Precision like that doesn’t exist. But accuracy does. And over a 3-, 5-, or 10-year time horizon, it’s more than good enough.
Following a process that’s accurate is reliable enough to get the big calls mostly right, even if the exact timing isn’t perfect. It keeps us on the right side of the long-term math.
Removing Emotion from Decisions
And just as important: removing emotion from decisions. Because emotion drives poor decisions – in any high-stakes situation. Eliminating that variable gives you a fighting chance to succeed.
While holding cash during market volatility can be misconstrued as emotional, it isn’t as long as it’s part of a strategic, disciplined portfolio management process and not market timing or panic-driven liquidation. Liquidating out of fear is emotional.
Holding cash, for us, is a positioning move that gives us the option to act with intention when the environment shifts. Optionality is the asset here.2
Did You Stay Invested This Week?
If you stayed invested this week, good on you. That’s hard. If you were tempted to throw in the towel, remember: market swings are part of the deal. Use them to your advantage—but don’t let them hijack your decisions.
This is exactly when disciplined planning earns its keep. The hard part is sticking to it—or being honest when it’s time to fine-tune it.
Maybe your risk tolerance has shifted. Maybe you’re rethinking how cash fits into the bigger picture. Those are good questions—and worth wrestling with.
Because what matters isn’t what happened this week—it’s what happens next. And how prepared you are for it.
A plan refined with clarity stands the test of volatility.
Keep looking forward.
1 Historical performance of markets is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and the reference to the “91% success rate” in no way implies a guarantee
2 Our use of cash is part of a disciplined process, not a predictive or guaranteed strategy. It is not intended as a signal of future market direction
Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, no portion of this discussion or information serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Neither Monument’s investment adviser registration status, nor any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Monument is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure and Form CRS discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at monumentwealthmanagement.com. Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s web site or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please Remember: If you are a Monument client, please contact Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify anyreasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please Also Remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.
Market Commentary
Managing Through Chaos
David B. Armstrong, CFA
David B. Armstrong, CFA®
David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
“When things go wrong, don’t go with them.” —Elvis Presley
If you checked your portfolio Monday afternoon and felt a little sick to your stomach, you weren’t alone. The S&P 500 dropped more than 2%, and it felt like one of those weeks was shaping up.
But then Tuesday happened.
The market turned on a dime, ripping higher by over 2%. By Wednesday morning? A 2%+ gap up before the market even opened. All in, this week started with a sequence that’s never happened before in SPY’s history: a 2%+ drop on Monday, a 2%+ gain on Tuesday, and a 2%+ gap higher on Wednesday.
This is real-world volatility.
Market Volatility ≠ Crisis
The type of market action we saw this week isn’t just rare—it’s historically significant.
Since 1953, a sequence like this week’s (2%+ drop followed by a 2%+ gain while under the 200-day moving average) has only happened 22 other times. The chart from Bespoke Investment Group below shows the S&P 500 since 1953 and a red dot for each occurrence.
And those reversals? They’ve often marked the early stages of strong long-term recoveries. One year later, markets were up over 20% on average—with a 91% success rate.1
The market can always move lower—that’s a possibility. But I like to focus on probabilities, not possibilities.
The probability of long-term gains in scenarios like these is heavily in favor of investors who hold steady. That 91% success rate isn’t trivia—it’s a signal.
It’s not unlike how a casino operates. The house doesn’t need to win every hand—it just needs a consistent edge. Staying invested during volatility the same kind of advantage.
In chaotic weeks like this one, it’s our job to separate the signal from the noise.
Great Leaders Manage Through Chaos
Good leaders use data to guide their decisions. For us, the data is critically important when deciding whether to reinvest after selling stocks vs. holding cash.
We may sell a security, but that doesn’t automatically mean we buy something else right away. Sometimes, the data says: “Not yet.” That’s not guesswork—it’s informed discipline.
Think of it like a cash flow crunch you see coming months out. You don’t double down on ego and keep spending like nothing’s wrong. You pivot early — cut costs, renegotiate terms, delay expansion — so you can weather it and come out stronger on the other side.
Holding cash during a market downturn works the same way. It’s not about fear or ego—it’s about managing risk until the environment improves.
That said, our investment team doesn’t pretend the data is a crystal ball. It won’t tell us the exact moment to start collecting cash, nor will it give us a blinking green light for the perfect time to buy back in. Precision like that doesn’t exist. But accuracy does. And over a 3-, 5-, or 10-year time horizon, it’s more than good enough.
Following a process that’s accurate is reliable enough to get the big calls mostly right, even if the exact timing isn’t perfect. It keeps us on the right side of the long-term math.
Removing Emotion from Decisions
And just as important: removing emotion from decisions. Because emotion drives poor decisions – in any high-stakes situation. Eliminating that variable gives you a fighting chance to succeed.
While holding cash during market volatility can be misconstrued as emotional, it isn’t as long as it’s part of a strategic, disciplined portfolio management process and not market timing or panic-driven liquidation. Liquidating out of fear is emotional.
Holding cash, for us, is a positioning move that gives us the option to act with intention when the environment shifts. Optionality is the asset here.2
Did You Stay Invested This Week?
If you stayed invested this week, good on you. That’s hard. If you were tempted to throw in the towel, remember: market swings are part of the deal. Use them to your advantage—but don’t let them hijack your decisions.
This is exactly when disciplined planning earns its keep. The hard part is sticking to it—or being honest when it’s time to fine-tune it.
Maybe your risk tolerance has shifted. Maybe you’re rethinking how cash fits into the bigger picture. Those are good questions—and worth wrestling with.
Because what matters isn’t what happened this week—it’s what happens next. And how prepared you are for it.
A plan refined with clarity stands the test of volatility.
Keep looking forward.
1 Historical performance of markets is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and the reference to the “91% success rate” in no way implies a guarantee
2 Our use of cash is part of a disciplined process, not a predictive or guaranteed strategy. It is not intended as a signal of future market direction
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