David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
The market just wrapped one of its best third quarters in years.
Equity Markets
The S&P 500 climbed 7.8% and even managed a 3.3% gain in September, which is usually one of the market’s roughest months.
On paper, that sounds simple enough. But under the surface, there’s a more interesting story taking shape, one that matters for how you think about the months ahead.
The headline is strength.
Stocks pushed through headlines about tariffs, layoffs, and politics to post broad gains. Technology, communication services, and consumer companies led the way while defensive sectors like utilities and staples lagged. The big names, the ones you already know, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, continued to pull heavy weight. Together they now make up more than 40% of the S&P 500’s total value.
That concentration is not new, but it is worth noting. Leadership this narrow can make investors nervous.
Hell, it makes ME nervous!
It’s like this…It feels a little like a NASCAR race where a few cars are so far ahead that everyone else seems invisible. They are setting the pace, and for now the rest of the field is simply following their draft, trying to keep up, but largely ignored.
The key question is not whether this leadership is healthy…and sustainable. Maybe, maybe not…but it HAS to be something that every investor is at least cognizant of.
In other words, don’t become a frog in a boiling pot.
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again in September and the target range now sits at around 4%, down from the mid 5s last year.
The reasoning was straightforward, the job market is cooling, unemployment has ticked up to just over 4%, and job openings are falling. The Fed’s hope is that cheaper borrowing costs can keep the economy humming without reigniting inflation.
And so far, it is working.
Growth remains steady, inflation has eased off the highs of a few years ago and continues easing no matter what you hear politicians screaming at each other, and there is no major sign of recession on the horizon. But the economy is running on a thinner margin than it used to. Companies are cautious, margins are under pressure, and profits for smaller and mid-sized firms have slipped even as the big names keep crushing it.
That mix, strong headlines and mixed details, is why this rally feels different. It is not driven by euphoria. It is driven by liquidity. Money is still flowing in. Corporations are buying back stock and that builds confidence. Exchange traded fund inflows are also strong.
Yet, despite all the new highs, investor sentiment remains oddly neutral. That is not usually how bubbles look.
Opinion…it is how late cycle strength often looks.
Why It’s Important and What to Do
For long term investors, this environment comes down to perspective because the market is telling two stories at once.
On one hand, we are seeing a genuine display of resilience, record highs, broad participation, and historical momentum that has almost always carried into the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, the same conditions that fuel this resilience, easy money, concentrated leadership, and cautious optimism, also hint that we are closer to the end of the cycle than the beginning.
That does not mean panic. It means preparation.
For most investors, preparation is not about trying to guess when leadership will rotate or when the next correction will start. It is about knowing that leadership will rotate and corrections do happen. The right strategy does not chase what just worked. It positions you to participate in what works next.
So What’s Next?
The data suggests the market still has room to run into year end.
Historically, when the market has recovered from a 10% correction and still posted a double-digit gain by September, it has finished the year higher every time.
But that is a statistic, not a promise.
The better takeaway is that trends can stay strong longer than people expect, especially when liquidity and confidence are aligned.
Meanwhile, tariffs and global growth are definitely something we are watching. Trade friction seems to be showing up in inflation data, with the cost of goods inching higher as companies absorb or pass along import costs.
Energy markets, on the other hand, remain sluggish. Despite a few price spikes, oil supply is plentiful, and demand is moderate. In other words, the world is not running out of energy, it is adjusting to a slower rhythm.
Add it all up, and the picture is balanced. The economy is cooling without cracking. The Fed is easing without panicking. And investors are staying engaged without overreaching. It is about as soft a landing as anyone could have asked for after the chaos of the past few years (2020, 2022, and Q1 of 2025).
This won’t seem like a new idea…but the real opportunity now is not to overreact to the noise.
Use this period to review your own positioning. Are your reserves where they should be? Do your investments still align with your goals? Have you thought through what you would actually do if leadership changes or volatility returns?
Like no kidding, if you lost 25% to 35% of your portfolio’s current value, would you freak out? If your $1m today turned into $750,000 or $650,000, would you wish you had done something right now? If the Dow dropped from the current index level of 46,800 by 35% to 30,420, would you be losing your mind?
Answer that, it’s probably the most important exercise you can do, and the answer should drive your decision to do something…or do nothing.
Markets will always shift. The key is staying intentional, keeping a clear view of what is working, what is changing, and what deserves your attention right now. That is where confidence comes from.
At Monument, that is why we spend as much time learning you as we do studying the markets. Every plan we design is built to adapt at the speed of life, because the next big shift rarely announces itself in advance.
Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. No amount of prior experience or success should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Monument is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures.
Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s website or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories.
Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.
Please Remember: If you are a Monument client, please contact Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please also remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.
Market Commentary
A Strong Quarter, A Soft Landing, and What It Really Means for You
David B. Armstrong, CFA
David B. Armstrong, CFA®
David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
The market just wrapped one of its best third quarters in years.
Equity Markets
The S&P 500 climbed 7.8% and even managed a 3.3% gain in September, which is usually one of the market’s roughest months.
On paper, that sounds simple enough. But under the surface, there’s a more interesting story taking shape, one that matters for how you think about the months ahead.
The headline is strength.
Stocks pushed through headlines about tariffs, layoffs, and politics to post broad gains. Technology, communication services, and consumer companies led the way while defensive sectors like utilities and staples lagged. The big names, the ones you already know, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, continued to pull heavy weight. Together they now make up more than 40% of the S&P 500’s total value.
That concentration is not new, but it is worth noting. Leadership this narrow can make investors nervous.
Hell, it makes ME nervous!
It’s like this…It feels a little like a NASCAR race where a few cars are so far ahead that everyone else seems invisible. They are setting the pace, and for now the rest of the field is simply following their draft, trying to keep up, but largely ignored.
The key question is not whether this leadership is healthy…and sustainable. Maybe, maybe not…but it HAS to be something that every investor is at least cognizant of.
In other words, don’t become a frog in a boiling pot.
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again in September and the target range now sits at around 4%, down from the mid 5s last year.
The reasoning was straightforward, the job market is cooling, unemployment has ticked up to just over 4%, and job openings are falling. The Fed’s hope is that cheaper borrowing costs can keep the economy humming without reigniting inflation.
And so far, it is working.
Growth remains steady, inflation has eased off the highs of a few years ago and continues easing no matter what you hear politicians screaming at each other, and there is no major sign of recession on the horizon. But the economy is running on a thinner margin than it used to. Companies are cautious, margins are under pressure, and profits for smaller and mid-sized firms have slipped even as the big names keep crushing it.
That mix, strong headlines and mixed details, is why this rally feels different. It is not driven by euphoria. It is driven by liquidity. Money is still flowing in. Corporations are buying back stock and that builds confidence. Exchange traded fund inflows are also strong.
Yet, despite all the new highs, investor sentiment remains oddly neutral. That is not usually how bubbles look.
Opinion…it is how late cycle strength often looks.
Why It’s Important and What to Do
For long term investors, this environment comes down to perspective because the market is telling two stories at once.
On one hand, we are seeing a genuine display of resilience, record highs, broad participation, and historical momentum that has almost always carried into the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, the same conditions that fuel this resilience, easy money, concentrated leadership, and cautious optimism, also hint that we are closer to the end of the cycle than the beginning.
That does not mean panic. It means preparation.
For most investors, preparation is not about trying to guess when leadership will rotate or when the next correction will start. It is about knowing that leadership will rotate and corrections do happen. The right strategy does not chase what just worked. It positions you to participate in what works next.
So What’s Next?
The data suggests the market still has room to run into year end.
Historically, when the market has recovered from a 10% correction and still posted a double-digit gain by September, it has finished the year higher every time.
But that is a statistic, not a promise.
The better takeaway is that trends can stay strong longer than people expect, especially when liquidity and confidence are aligned.
Meanwhile, tariffs and global growth are definitely something we are watching. Trade friction seems to be showing up in inflation data, with the cost of goods inching higher as companies absorb or pass along import costs.
Energy markets, on the other hand, remain sluggish. Despite a few price spikes, oil supply is plentiful, and demand is moderate. In other words, the world is not running out of energy, it is adjusting to a slower rhythm.
Add it all up, and the picture is balanced. The economy is cooling without cracking. The Fed is easing without panicking. And investors are staying engaged without overreaching. It is about as soft a landing as anyone could have asked for after the chaos of the past few years (2020, 2022, and Q1 of 2025).
This won’t seem like a new idea…but the real opportunity now is not to overreact to the noise.
Use this period to review your own positioning. Are your reserves where they should be? Do your investments still align with your goals? Have you thought through what you would actually do if leadership changes or volatility returns?
Like no kidding, if you lost 25% to 35% of your portfolio’s current value, would you freak out? If your $1m today turned into $750,000 or $650,000, would you wish you had done something right now? If the Dow dropped from the current index level of 46,800 by 35% to 30,420, would you be losing your mind?
Answer that, it’s probably the most important exercise you can do, and the answer should drive your decision to do something…or do nothing.
Markets will always shift. The key is staying intentional, keeping a clear view of what is working, what is changing, and what deserves your attention right now. That is where confidence comes from.
At Monument, that is why we spend as much time learning you as we do studying the markets. Every plan we design is built to adapt at the speed of life, because the next big shift rarely announces itself in advance.
Keep looking forward.
Make life option rich.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. No amount of prior experience or success should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Monument is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures.
Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s website or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories.
Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.
Please Remember: If you are a Monument client, please contact Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please also remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.