David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
Since the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, there have been over 30 corrections of 5% or more.
Thirty.
The median pullback lasted about 26 days and took the market down roughly 7.6%. Some were worse. Some barely registered. But every single one of them had something in common.
They all recovered.
I want you to sit with that for a second, because right now the headlines are loud. The Iran war. Crude oil spiking past $100 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Private credit turmoil. AI disruption fears. The S&P 500 is down about 7.6% from its January high.
And if you let the news cycle drive your investment decisions, you might be tempted to do something you will regret.
The Fear Factory Never Shuts Down
Here is what makes this data so powerful. Look at the reasons the market sold off each time. Every correction had its own terrifying narrative. Every single one felt like “this time is different.”
S&P 500 Corrections greater than 5% since March 2009 Low
In 2010, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis was spiraling and the “Flash Crash” wiped nearly 1,000 points off the Dow in minutes. People thought the financial system was breaking again, barely a year after the Great Recession ended. The S&P 500 fell over 17% in 66 days.
It recovered.
In 2011, Europe’s debt crisis deepened, and then the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating for the first time in history. The S&P 500 fell nearly 22%. Everyone was convinced the global financial system was going to crack for good.
It recovered.
The fiscal cliff in 2012. The Fed taper tantrum in 2013. Ebola and global growth fears in 2014. Greece defaulting and the China stock crash in 2015.
All eventually recovered.
In 2018, we had rising rates, a China slowdown, and escalating trade war fears. The market dropped over 20% from September to December. By mid-2019, it was at new highs.
So, yeah, it recovered.
In 2020, a global pandemic shut down the entire world economy. The S&P 500 dropped 35% in about a month. Thirty-five percent. People were convinced we were heading into a depression.
Not only did the market recover, it hit new highs within five months.
In 2022, the Fed was tightening aggressively, Russia invaded Ukraine, and inflation was running at levels we had not seen in 40 years, peaking at 9.1% in June. The S&P 500 fell nearly 28% over 282 days. That one hurt. It was long. It was grinding…
And it recovered.
In the summer of 2024, recession fears exploded, the Nikkei had its worst crash since 1987, and the Fed was accused of being behind the curve on rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 10% in 20 days.
By the fall, it was at all-time highs.
Then came 2025. Tariffs, trade wars, and global recession fears took the market down over 21%.
It recovered.
They all recovered…
Every. Single. Time.
The market gave investors a reason to panic. And the investors who stayed disciplined, who had a plan, who managed their cash strategically… they came out ahead.
This Time Feels Different. (Spoiler: It Always Does)
I get it. The Iran situation is serious.
Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the conflict began in late February. Brent crude briefly spiked above $119 a barrel before pulling back to around $100. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, has been effectively shut down. Iraq declared force majeure on its oil exports. The Fed is holding rates steady. Recession fears are creeping back in.
That is a lot. I am not minimizing any of it.
But here is what I want you to notice. The S&P 500, as I write this, is down about 7.6% from its January peak. That is right in line with the median correction over the past 17 years. Right in the middle of the historical range.
This is not unusual, nor unprecedented.
This is what markets do. Markets correct. Then they recover. Then they correct again. And recover again.
The pattern does not require prediction. It requires patience and process.
The Real Risk Isn’t the Actual Pullback
Instead, it’s what you do during the pullback.
Every major study on investor returns shows the same thing. If you miss just 10 of the best days over a decade, your returns take a serious hit.
And when do the best days tend to happen? Right in the middle of the worst stretches. Right when things feel the most uncertain.
If you sold on the way down during COVID in March 2020, you missed one of the fastest recoveries in market history. If you panicked during the 2022 bear market, you missed the rally that followed. If you bailed during the tariff chaos of 2025, you left money on the table.
The temptation to “do something” is powerful. The financial news industry makes billions of dollars by making you feel like you need to act. But the data tells a different story.
What Discipline Really Looks Like
At Monument, we talk a lot about cash management as a strategic tool. This is exactly the kind of environment where that strategy earns its keep.
A disciplined cash reserve is not about timing the market. It is about making sure you never have to sell at the wrong time. Liquidity to cover life expenses, opportunities, even unexpected events… without being forced to liquidate investments during a temporary drawdown.
That is the whole point. When you have a plan, a pullback is just a pullback. When you do not have a plan, a pullback becomes a crisis.
Thirty corrections in 17 years. Some lasted a week. Some lasted almost a year. The reasons ranged from pandemics to wars to policy missteps to plain old fear.
But the investors who had a process, who stayed invested, who did not let the noise dictate their decisions… they are the ones sitting on the gains today.
Where We Stand Right Now
The current correction started on January 28, 2026. As of now, we are about 51 days in. The S&P 500 peaked near 7,002 and has pulled back to the 6,474 range. That is a 7.6% decline.
The reasons? Iran war uncertainty. Crude oil disruptions. Private credit concerns. AI disruption fears. Every one of those is a real issue.
None of them are permanent.
Goldman Sachs still has a year-end target of 7,600 for the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has been cautious, thinks the current decline is “mature in time and price” and that much of the pain has already worked through the system. Wall Street consensus points to double-digit returns for the remainder of 2026.
(Frequent readers know what I think about predictions. But you also know I always pay attention to what smart people are saying, because a huge part of my job is “looking under all the rocks”.)
Ok, could it get worse before it gets better? Absolutely.
It always can.
But the question is not whether markets will be volatile. The question is whether you have a strategy that can handle it.
The Scoreboard Does Not Lie
Thirty-plus corrections since 2009. Median decline of 7.6%. Median duration of 26 days. One hundred percent recovery rate.
One hundred percent.
That does not mean every correction is painless. It does not mean you should ignore risk.
It means the historical evidence overwhelmingly favors the investor who stays the course, manages their cash with intention, and refuses to let temporary fear dictate permanent decisions.
The headlines will keep coming. They always do.
Here’s my advice: Be the investor who understands that volatility is the price of admission, not a signal to sell. That kind of discipline gives you the greatest advantage.
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Market Commentary
30 Corrections. 30 Recoveries. One Lesson.
David B. Armstrong, CFA
David B. Armstrong, CFA®
David B. Armstong, CFA® is Co-founder and CEO at Monument. He is an entrepreneur, portfolio manager, philanthropist, board member, and frequent conference and podcast speaker. He is also a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.
Since the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, there have been over 30 corrections of 5% or more.
Thirty.
The median pullback lasted about 26 days and took the market down roughly 7.6%. Some were worse. Some barely registered. But every single one of them had something in common.
They all recovered.
I want you to sit with that for a second, because right now the headlines are loud. The Iran war. Crude oil spiking past $100 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Private credit turmoil. AI disruption fears. The S&P 500 is down about 7.6% from its January high.
And if you let the news cycle drive your investment decisions, you might be tempted to do something you will regret.
The Fear Factory Never Shuts Down
Here is what makes this data so powerful. Look at the reasons the market sold off each time. Every correction had its own terrifying narrative. Every single one felt like “this time is different.”
In 2010, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis was spiraling and the “Flash Crash” wiped nearly 1,000 points off the Dow in minutes. People thought the financial system was breaking again, barely a year after the Great Recession ended. The S&P 500 fell over 17% in 66 days.
It recovered.
In 2011, Europe’s debt crisis deepened, and then the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating for the first time in history. The S&P 500 fell nearly 22%. Everyone was convinced the global financial system was going to crack for good.
It recovered.
The fiscal cliff in 2012. The Fed taper tantrum in 2013. Ebola and global growth fears in 2014. Greece defaulting and the China stock crash in 2015.
All eventually recovered.
In 2018, we had rising rates, a China slowdown, and escalating trade war fears. The market dropped over 20% from September to December. By mid-2019, it was at new highs.
So, yeah, it recovered.
In 2020, a global pandemic shut down the entire world economy. The S&P 500 dropped 35% in about a month. Thirty-five percent. People were convinced we were heading into a depression.
Not only did the market recover, it hit new highs within five months.
In 2022, the Fed was tightening aggressively, Russia invaded Ukraine, and inflation was running at levels we had not seen in 40 years, peaking at 9.1% in June. The S&P 500 fell nearly 28% over 282 days. That one hurt. It was long. It was grinding…
And it recovered.
In the summer of 2024, recession fears exploded, the Nikkei had its worst crash since 1987, and the Fed was accused of being behind the curve on rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 10% in 20 days.
By the fall, it was at all-time highs.
Then came 2025. Tariffs, trade wars, and global recession fears took the market down over 21%.
It recovered.
They all recovered…
Every. Single. Time.
The market gave investors a reason to panic. And the investors who stayed disciplined, who had a plan, who managed their cash strategically… they came out ahead.
This Time Feels Different. (Spoiler: It Always Does)
I get it. The Iran situation is serious.
Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the conflict began in late February. Brent crude briefly spiked above $119 a barrel before pulling back to around $100. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, has been effectively shut down. Iraq declared force majeure on its oil exports. The Fed is holding rates steady. Recession fears are creeping back in.
That is a lot. I am not minimizing any of it.
But here is what I want you to notice. The S&P 500, as I write this, is down about 7.6% from its January peak. That is right in line with the median correction over the past 17 years. Right in the middle of the historical range.
This is not unusual, nor unprecedented.
This is what markets do. Markets correct. Then they recover. Then they correct again. And recover again.
The pattern does not require prediction. It requires patience and process.
The Real Risk Isn’t the Actual Pullback
Instead, it’s what you do during the pullback.
Every major study on investor returns shows the same thing. If you miss just 10 of the best days over a decade, your returns take a serious hit.
And when do the best days tend to happen? Right in the middle of the worst stretches. Right when things feel the most uncertain.
If you sold on the way down during COVID in March 2020, you missed one of the fastest recoveries in market history. If you panicked during the 2022 bear market, you missed the rally that followed. If you bailed during the tariff chaos of 2025, you left money on the table.
The temptation to “do something” is powerful. The financial news industry makes billions of dollars by making you feel like you need to act. But the data tells a different story.
What Discipline Really Looks Like
At Monument, we talk a lot about cash management as a strategic tool. This is exactly the kind of environment where that strategy earns its keep.
A disciplined cash reserve is not about timing the market. It is about making sure you never have to sell at the wrong time. Liquidity to cover life expenses, opportunities, even unexpected events… without being forced to liquidate investments during a temporary drawdown.
That is the whole point. When you have a plan, a pullback is just a pullback. When you do not have a plan, a pullback becomes a crisis.
Thirty corrections in 17 years. Some lasted a week. Some lasted almost a year. The reasons ranged from pandemics to wars to policy missteps to plain old fear.
But the investors who had a process, who stayed invested, who did not let the noise dictate their decisions… they are the ones sitting on the gains today.
Where We Stand Right Now
The current correction started on January 28, 2026. As of now, we are about 51 days in. The S&P 500 peaked near 7,002 and has pulled back to the 6,474 range. That is a 7.6% decline.
The reasons? Iran war uncertainty. Crude oil disruptions. Private credit concerns. AI disruption fears. Every one of those is a real issue.
None of them are permanent.
Goldman Sachs still has a year-end target of 7,600 for the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has been cautious, thinks the current decline is “mature in time and price” and that much of the pain has already worked through the system. Wall Street consensus points to double-digit returns for the remainder of 2026.
(Frequent readers know what I think about predictions. But you also know I always pay attention to what smart people are saying, because a huge part of my job is “looking under all the rocks”.)
Ok, could it get worse before it gets better? Absolutely.
It always can.
But the question is not whether markets will be volatile. The question is whether you have a strategy that can handle it.
The Scoreboard Does Not Lie
Thirty-plus corrections since 2009. Median decline of 7.6%. Median duration of 26 days. One hundred percent recovery rate.
One hundred percent.
That does not mean every correction is painless. It does not mean you should ignore risk.
It means the historical evidence overwhelmingly favors the investor who stays the course, manages their cash with intention, and refuses to let temporary fear dictate permanent decisions.
The headlines will keep coming. They always do.
Here’s my advice: Be the investor who understands that volatility is the price of admission, not a signal to sell. That kind of discipline gives you the greatest advantage.
Keep looking forward.
Make life option rich.
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