A Quick Note on Market Volatility

I don’t think the best search engine optimization practice is to recommend the real title I wanted to use: “Shit Happens…Often.” But including it in the body is probably good enough, eh?

Man, I suspect we will be seeing a lot of “Sell in May” references by the time this month is over.  Heading into today, the S&P 500 is already down over 4% for May and we still have three trading days to go. Considering today’s weak market, I’m betting we could see a 5% decline for the month.

In contrast to the equity market, Treasuries have been doing well.  The Bank of America / Merrill Lynch index of long-term notes, which basically looks at Treasuries that are 10-year and longer in maturity, U.S. Treasuries are up over 4% for May.  A 4% monthly decline for equities isn’t that rare…According to Bespoke, there have been 40 prior occurrences since 1990.  However, when it’s accompanied by a rally in U.S. Treasuries of this degree, it’s a lot less common.  They also note that “since 1990, there have only been ten other months where the S&P 500 was down more than 4% heading into the final three trading days of the month while at the same time long-term U.S. Treasuries were up over 4%.”

They go on to say that there is usually a rally when that happens, but I don’t think anyone should be pegging any hope on that.

The real issue is the economy.  People sell stocks and buy bonds when they speculate that the economy will do poorly.  I believe the basis for this slowing economy sentiment is grounded in the China trade issue.

Okay look, I get it. China news gets everyone speculating that there could be a slowdown, and frankly it could be true.  But I don’t think it’s a tradable event.  What’s different today than a month ago? Rhetoric out of both governments?  That’s saber rattling until it’s not.

For now, I still see MONCON 5.  I see nothing in the model suggesting that we are in a recession nor do I see data that suggest we are within six months of a recession.  It’s true that headwinds have picked up, but a slowing economy is no where near the same thing as a negative economy (recession).

MONCON_Recession_5

Actually, the most interesting data I see that feeds into MONCON is the massive uptick in Google search volume for the word “recession.” Since that’s the only thing that’s up-ticking, I think it’s indicative of some emotional response to the news cycle.

Sit tight right now – don’t react to this month’s poor equity market performance.  Remember to anticipate your cash needs and as always…

Keep looking forward.

Dave

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Wealth Management), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.

All indexes referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument Wealth Management. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Monument Wealth Management is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.

A copy of Monument Wealth Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Get Monument #Unfiltered: Our Free Private Wealth Newsletter

Our no B.S. wealth advice delivered 2x per month, max. Tuned specifically for busy, high-net-worth business professionals and investors who want straightforward advice without the fluff.

David B. photo

David B. Armstrong, CFA

President & Co-Founder

Dave got into the industry when he discovered his passion for finance in his mid-20’s. He’s a combat veteran and served as an officer in the United States Marines Corps on both active duty and in the reserves, retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. While serving on active duty, Dave was unable to spend money on deployments, so he became a self-taught investor. Along with a few bucks cash as a bouncer, his investing performance grew to be good....

Learn more ...

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Monument Capital Management, LLC [“Monument”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Monument. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. No amount of prior experience or success should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Monument is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Monument is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.

A copy of Monument’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at www.monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures. Please Note: Monument does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Monument’s website or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  It should not be assumed that your Monument account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Monument accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Please Remember: If you are a Monument client, please contact Monument, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services.  Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please Also Remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.