Monument Wealth Management Vlog

Inversion Aversion

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I received a lot of great feedback and encouragement on yesterday’s video, and wanted to further dive into two questions that have come up: What did I mean by “distortion”? Why does a yield curve actually cause a recession? Interesting to note that the current inversion process is very different from the past. In the past we have had inflation …

The Yield Curve Distortion

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

 Putting things into perspective…There are trillions of dollars of debt that are exposed to negative interest rates. (For example, this means, when you give the bank $100 bucks, they give you $96 back.) That sucks! The U.S. has the safest and best paying bonds in the world.  So people are taking their money out of negative interest rate environments …

Lifetime Milestones & The Power of Time

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Sometimes we forget about the power of time.  Big historical moments are memories in our lives, but we tend to live in the present…or in the past few weeks.  We are bombarded by quarterly earnings, GDP, employment reports, market pull backs, and the never-ending news cycle. The list of things grabbing our attention is long. In fact, it’s infinite. It …

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A Real-Life Client Critique of Monument

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I recently published two quick videos on some thoughts I had about the economy.  We put them out on social media but are still working on the best way to get them out through the blog.  Here they are: Three Quick Thoughts on the Market |  July 12th Are You Still Moving Forward? |  July 16th I’m working on better …

The Current State of Things

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I want to write something, but I keep staring at my screen.  It happens.  It happens a lot more since I’ve stopped writing a “Weekly Market Summary.”  I’ve graduated from that.  It was great when I started writing because I had a topic ready for every weekend. But when looking back it’s all blah blah blah. No one cared. I …

Is it Worth Paying Attention to The Fed?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The Fed’s 9-1 decision the other day to leave the policy rate unchanged was not a shock or surprise to anyone.  But, the Fed did telegraph a polarity shift to the markets and equities gained slightly on future rate cut optimism (the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%) while the 10-year yield declined to around 2.03%.  I’m guessing there is a 95% certainty the …

Being Boring

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Global markets surged higher this week, boosted by falling (read: diving) interest rates as bad economic data led most pundits to predict multiple Fed cuts this year. Everyone has heard the saying, “Bad news is good news,” but that’s usually not the case if the news is actually really bad. So is it? Well, it’s true that the global economy …

A Quick Note on Market Volatility

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I don’t think the best search engine optimization practice is to recommend the real title I wanted to use: “Shit Happens…Often.” But including it in the body is probably good enough, eh? Man, I suspect we will be seeing a lot of “Sell in May” references by the time this month is over.  Heading into today, the S&P 500 is …

When Perceptions Change, Should Your Portfolio Change, Too?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The markets were surprised by Trump’s tweet last Sunday declaring he was raising tariffs from 10% to 25% on the initial $250 billion of Chinese imports…and implementing tariffs on the remaining $300+ billion as well.   However, this should not be a big deal to many of our readers. Those who don’t need cash right now are just fine.  Here’s the plain old, straightforward truth…We …

Universal Healthscare

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Weakness in the Healthcare sector has been widespread on the heels of political discussions around healthcare and drug prices.  Drug makers, insurance companies, medical companies and biotechs have all struggled from this. Actually, “struggled” is an understatement. While the Healthcare sector has been losing ground, one of the top performing S&P 500 sectors, Technology, has continued to outperform. That’s just …

The Next Recession

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

When Will the Next Recession Happen?  Last week we saw the yield curve invert and it sent the expected panic through the market. The big question now – when will the next recession happen?  First, here’s what everyone freaked out about: the yields between the 10-year and the 3-month Treasuries went negative. Every recession since 1962 has seen this condition happen before the start of a recession; however, not every inversion has …

Inflation

Why Is Inflation So Important?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

There is the inflation that everyone talks about on TV and in financial reports: CPI, Core CPI, Producer Price Index…blah blah blah.  These reports are important, but I don’t think they are as important to you, the investor, as you may think.  Especially if you are a high-net-worth investor. Why? Because of what those indices measure. The CPI, for example, …