stock market predictions

When the Cost of Being Wrong is Zero

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

It’s the fourth quarter of 2019 and predictions on where the market will end up at the end of the year are popping up all over.  The problem with these predictions is that there is no cost for being wrong. Take for example an article in last weekend’s Barron’s, where they published the “Big Money Poll”.  Here’s the first paragraph: …

Monument Wealth Management Blog

Get Them Straight – Hedge Funds, Pension Funds and Your Funds

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I’ve been working in wealth management for over two decades now.  It’s changed a lot, mostly for the better, but the one thing that has remained consistent is investor behavior. One of the most often repeated statements I hear from investors is something along the lines of, “I want to have returns that outperform the S&P 500 without the same …

Monument Wealth Management Vlog

Vlog: Inversion Aversion

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I received a lot of great feedback and encouragement on yesterday’s video, and wanted to further dive into two questions that have come up: What did I mean by “distortion”? Why does a yield curve actually cause a recession? Interesting to note that the current inversion process is very different from the past. In the past we have had inflation …

A Quick Note on Market Volatility

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I don’t think the best search engine optimization practice is to recommend the real title I wanted to use: “Shit Happens…Often.” But including it in the body is probably good enough, eh? Man, I suspect we will be seeing a lot of “Sell in May” references by the time this month is over.  Heading into today, the S&P 500 is …

When Perceptions Change, Should Your Portfolio Change, Too?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The markets were surprised by Trump’s tweet last Sunday declaring he was raising tariffs from 10% to 25% on the initial $250 billion of Chinese imports…and implementing tariffs on the remaining $300+ billion as well.   However, this should not be a big deal to many of our readers. Those who don’t need cash right now are just fine.  Here’s the plain old, straightforward truth…We …

After_Long_Nap_Im_Woke 2.8.2019

A Long Nap – I’m Woke

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

It’s really important that investors understand what has happened over the past two months. Ask yourself, do you even remember what caused the Christmas Eve sell off? If you do, do you still possess fear over that issue? Furthermore, what were your emotional reactions? I suspect there was a lot of fear and anxiety – and that’s understandable. No one …

3 Kinds of Investors

Three Kinds of Investors

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The other day, a colleague asked me about my thoughts for a blog he was writing on whether investors were hiring and/or firing advisors, especially during periods like the last three months. The conversation went something like this: Colleague: “Do you think the current environment causes a lot of investors to switch advisors? Me: “Yes, and vice versa. I’ll bet …

Investing_Look_Ahead_2019

Investing: How to Look Ahead in 2019 (Part 1)

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

2019 is here and by now everyone has probably overdosed on news about how 2018 closed out. I’m a little late posting this since I took the week off between Christmas and New Year’s to read and relax. My efforts, as Marine fighter pilot Lt. Col. Wilbur “Bull” Meechum from The Great Santini would have put it, were “grossly insufficient.” …

Trade and The Tariff Man

Trade and The Tariff Man

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I was inspired to write based on a social media post from yesterday by my old friend and stalwart colleague, Rob Bartenstein, the CEO of Kestra Wealth Management. “The news media may or may not be the enemy of the people. But it ain’t your friend. Your friend wouldn’t blare negative sh!t [my edit] at you all day punctuated with …

October Market Correction

Octo-BURRRR

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

So, October…WTF? Election uncertainty, trade wars and rising interest rates made for a recipe of investor concerns and panic in October. After falling for 21 out of 27 sessions, the S&P dropped 9.9% or about 290 points to a low on October 29th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) fell 2,385 points or 8.9% from its high. Losses in the …