Recession Fears and the Current Market

Recession Fears and the Current Market

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

You know we are in an economic expansion, right?  Yes, despite the recent drawdown in equity prices, we are in an economic expansion…and remember, a slowdown is not the same as a recession. How much further can the U.S. expansion go?  Frankly, no one knows. It could extend beyond the consensus of 2020. Here are three reasons why the U.S. …

A Quick Fed Update

A Quick Fed Update

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Back on October 12, 2018, I wrote a blog post titled, “Trump’s Fed Attack – Why.” This was right after Fed Chairman Powell told PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff that the Fed Funds rate was “a long way from neutral.” You may better remember the response from the President when he said, “The Fed is going loco and there’s no …

When the Yield Curve Inverts

When the Yield Curve Inverts

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury interest rate is referred to as “the spread”. When this number goes negative, the 2-year interest rate is higher than the 10-year interest rate.  It always spells trouble. The markets are reacting to the spread shrinking. See the downward trending line on the right-hand side of the chart below.  It’s easy to …

Which Is Worse

Which is Worse?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

All weekend long I saw a lot of news that basically boiled down to one question – which is worse, a yield curve that is flattening or bond yields that are going up? When the Fed raises interest rates (by raising the federal funds rate), they are signaling that they have faith in the economy. They are also giving themselves …

Selloffs – These Things Happen and It’s Okay

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I know that it’s never comfortable seeing account values decline. No one likes to lose money and no one likes the way it feels when everyone is talking about the recent volatility. The most important thing that any investor can take away from last week is the need to reflect on your core beliefs, goals and the current fundamentals of …

Investing is Like a Box of Chocolates

Eight Week Winning Streak Over – Time to Sell?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The Dow and the S&P 500 both broke eight-week winning streaks. It has been an impressive run-up in prices, but not without precedent. Everyone remember 2013? Well in case not, we had a nice strong bull market in 2013. No two periods are exactly alike, I get that, but comparing key metrics and some of today’s concerns with 2013 offers …

dont-be-a-day-trader

Why the Shrinking Unemployment is Not as Good as it Seems

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Well, we finally had a negative week in the S&P 500, post-election. It was trading down 0.97% for the week, and ended up at an index level of 2,192. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was barely positive, clocking in with a 0.1% gain on the week to close at 19,170. There was good news with employment and an interest rate …

plan vs catch up

The Jackson Hole Meeting – Should You Care?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Much of last Friday’s speech was dedicated to the tools (actual “monetary tools”, not people) the Fed can use to stimulate the economy. The speech also included how the Fed might react to a future recession. This remark by Janet Yellen received the most immediate attention— “I believe the case for an increase in the Fed funds rate has strengthened …

Cat Economy

Why the Market is up 5 Weeks in a Row

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I always find it very interesting to observe the difference in behavior as markets move up and down – especially in the press. I get it, markets tend to go down much more quickly than they go up. It’s much easier for people to get on TV and try to look smart by saying things like, “the reason the market …