A Quick Fed Update

A Quick Fed Update

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

Back on October 12, 2018, I wrote a blog post titled, “Trump’s Fed Attack – Why.” This was right after Fed Chairman Powell told PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff that the Fed Funds rate was “a long way from neutral.” You may better remember the response from the President when he said, “The Fed is going loco and there’s no …

When the Yield Curve Inverts

When the Yield Curve Inverts

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury interest rate is referred to as “the spread”. When this number goes negative, the 2-year interest rate is higher than the 10-year interest rate.  It always spells trouble. The markets are reacting to the spread shrinking. See the downward trending line on the right-hand side of the chart below.  It’s easy to …

Which Is Worse

Which is Worse?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

All weekend long I saw a lot of news that basically boiled down to one question – which is worse, a yield curve that is flattening or bond yields that are going up? When the Fed raises interest rates (by raising the federal funds rate), they are signaling that they have faith in the economy. They are also giving themselves …

Selloffs – These Things Happen and It’s Okay

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

I know that it’s never comfortable seeing account values decline. No one likes to lose money and no one likes the way it feels when everyone is talking about the recent volatility. The most important thing that any investor can take away from last week is the need to reflect on your core beliefs, goals and the current fundamentals of …

Investing is Like a Box of Chocolates

Eight Week Winning Streak Over – Time to Sell?

David B. Armstrong, CFA Weekly Market Commentary

The Dow and the S&P 500 both broke eight-week winning streaks. It has been an impressive run-up in prices, but not without precedent. Everyone remember 2013? Well in case not, we had a nice strong bull market in 2013. No two periods are exactly alike, I get that, but comparing key metrics and some of today’s concerns with 2013 offers …