Bear Market

Does a Bear Whit in the Soods?

Does a Bear Whit in the Soods? You see what I did there, right? Last week was horrible, I get it. The S&P 500 is down about 6% year-to-date (YTD) in the first week of the year. Furthermore, with the Dow down about 11% from its high last year and the S&P 500 down just a hair under 10% (-9.8%), we are basically in “correction territory”, which is generally defined…

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The Market

Oil, Oil, Everywhere

Global equity markets ended the week with big losses. The S&P 500, German DAX, and Japan TOPIX were -3.7%, -3.8%, and -1.5%, respectively.   Commodity prices hit a 16-year low, which weighed on stocks. I discuss oil in greater detail below, however, markets are now anticipating the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decision on December 16th.  An interest rate increase is a very high probability (this is a consensus thought in…

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Trump vs Bush Interest Rates

Debates & Rates

For the week, U.S. stocks were pretty much flat as the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged.  This prompted some rather mixed emotions… On one hand, the Fed’s low interest rates that have been in place since the financial crisis and have supported equities remain. On the other hand, the Fed expressed concern about the global economy (China, emerging markets, etc.) which has been the big contributor to all…

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Interest Rates

The Fed

This week it’s all about the Federal Reserve.  Their two-day meeting will finish up on Thursday and it is the first meeting in almost a decade that could bring about a hike in the fed funds rate. How Fed Chief Janet Yellen frames the decision may be just as significant, if not more significant, than what the Fed finally decides. And frankly, it’s the trajectory of rates over the next…

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Blog

Okay, I Get It… I’m Late Posting a Blog.

I got a good ribbing from a great client this week about the quality of my blogs… He basically said, “I can tell how detailed your blog will be by how quickly the disclaimers come rolling up.”  Well, this may be one of those weeks that the disclaimers come rolling up quick, BUT, I think I have a few thoughts worth sharing.  Especially for all you folks in the “Chicken…

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Oil Prices

Oil, Deflation, Earnings & the Fed – OH BOY!

Last week was a major disappointment on a lot of different fronts… sometimes you expect one thing and you end up with another. But not at the gas pumps! Oil is still a hot topic in anything you read or see on TV. The thing that has everyone all worked up is the thought that declining oil prices will cause deflation and deflation is bad. It all starts when corporations…

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Tom Brady Inflation

The ECB, Deflation and Tom Brady

Following months of dialogue and bickering about the best way to fix Europe’s ailing economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) has embarked on a new course and has decided to follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Beginning in March, the ECB will coordinate the monthly purchases of 60 billion euro (which is about 68 billion dollars) in bonds with…

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Volatile Market in USNews Featured Image

Why Inflation Isn’t an Issue. Yet.

Inflation still remains below the 50-year historical average. It seems like I’m fielding a ton of questions about inflation lately and it got me thinking, “Why are so many people beginning to ask me about inflation now?” I suppose the price of oil and gas is one reason, and it’s natural to extrapolate the increase of that commodity across the supply chain and assume that means the price of everything…

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Volatile Market in USNews Featured Image

How to Value the Stock Market

The S&P 500 is on the undervalued side and has significant room for growth. In a headline-driven environment, it’s easy to get confused about which way the market is moving. Let’s put aside the calamities of the day and focus on the fundamentals of “the market,” as defined by the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500). The S&P 500, which includes the 500 largest companies in the U.S., represents…

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