What One Economic Indicator is Saying About an Upcoming Recession

First – a look back at what was happening in 2008. I thought this was a pretty interesting clip from the University of Pennsylvania. I have more thoughts on news and headlines below but first I want to transition to one of the leading economic indicators I like to keep a sharp eye on…the Department of Labor’s Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for Unemployment Insurance. This report is often referred to…

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DOW 30000

So The Dow Hit 20,000… What Does That Mean For You?

First – we feel like Monument is just one of those places that does a great job recruiting and retaining great employees. While not all of them remain, we love to highlight how hard work and good decisions lead to greater success down the road. Many of you may remember Kristen Owen. Kristen started with us as a recent MBA grad and freshly minted with her CFA designation. After life…

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2017

Let’s Party Like It’s 19,999

RIP Prince, but I thought it was a fitting title for my first blog since the end of 2016. If someone had bought around 1,000 more shares of any stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we would have reached the vaunted Dow 20,000. Anyway, I took some time off for the holidays to relax and read and I hope that everyone had a great end of the year. It…

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gdp-increased

Did You Notice the GDP Report?

The Election Someone please tell Ball Park Franks they HAVE to hire Anthony Weiner to make a spoof YouTube ad for next summer. I mean, it’s a layup. Other than that, I’m not touching the election. The only points I’ve made about it can (and should) be read in one of my earlier blog posts. You can already see how the market will react to any surprise election results that…

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guess

Why Profits Are Important In This Market

Any relatively consistent reader of this blog will have a good idea of my thoughts on market timing. I’ve said over and over that it’s like flipping a coin to get out of the market and then flipping it again to get back in. The odds are low of being right, and if you don’t need the liquidity, why would you even bother? Please take some time and re-read this…

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common sense

Why Earnings, Charts and Oil are Important to You Right Now.

Earnings season hasn’t ended yet, but it’s really slowing down since over 2,000 companies have reported their earnings for the quarter… we’re in the home stretch. Wal-Mart (WMT) is the unofficial “closer” of the reporting period and they will announce on August 18th. So far, most investors seem satisfied by both the earnings and the market’s response. The S&P 500 has increased by over 2% since the season began (Alcoa…

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market is high

Stocks Are On A Roll – What Now?

Last week was a busy one for me. I had a dinner meeting every evening and there was a resounding theme, both implicit and explicit, in almost every conversation we had – “Is now a good time to add money to portfolios or start taking chips off the table?” Answer: I don’t know. How could I? But that still does not absolve me from needing to look at things and…

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Obama GDP

A Review of First Quarter GDP

This week, I review the markets, the recent GDP report and earnings.  All with my general dose of jokes and sarcasm intertwined with facts and general advice.  Just like the doctor ordered. We are currently working on our quarterly video – be on the look-out for that.  In case you are curious, you can re-watch the January video here. Also, be sure to see the press release on Brittany and…

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out of the market

The Most Hated Rally I’ve Ever Seen – Here’s What Has the Market Up

I don’t know what it is, but it seems that everyone I casually chat with is sour about this rally. I’m not sure if it’s because people are in cash, if it’s because they are over-weighted to sectors that are not up as much as the market, or if it is because they are just sour about a lot of the economic data that keeps pointing to a tepid expansion.…

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Advisor

3 Takeaways from Warren Buffet’s Annual Letter

How can my blog compete against Warren Buffet’s annual letter that was released Saturday? You should read it, but here are three segments I liked: #1 “America’s population is growing about .8% per year (.5% from births minus deaths and .3% from net migration). Thus 2% of overall growth produces about 1.2% of per capita growth. That may not sound impressive. But in a single generation of, say, 25 years,…

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reverse psychology

What a Bear Market Means to You

I think this is a pull back and not a recession. But I could be wrong – and here’s why… I DON’T KNOW. And here’s more bad news… YOU DON’T EITHER. And to make matters even worse… NEITHER DOES ANYONE ELSE! And for all those people out there about to unleash their “I told you so…” and their “I saw this whole thing coming,” you need to do a few…

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2016 Economic Review

I Remember 2015 Like It Was Yesterday

**Since today is a big move day in the market, I’ve got a quick thought at the end of this blog. 2015…a year of both expectedness and surprises. The economy trudged along, the unemployment rate fell, and the Federal Reserve finally lifted the Fed funds rate at the end of the year. Taking a closer look, we see what many people are calling “The Tale of Two Economies.” This is…

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Thanksgiving Week

The Beginning of the Holiday Season

This is the beginning of the best time of the year.  Everyone here at Monument hopes you had a wonderful past few days with family and friends. Now, it’s on to the full-blown holiday season. Last week was pretty quiet due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The economic data that was reported remained largely positive and investors seemed less concerned about the mounting evidence that the Federal Reserve will raise rates…

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Paris France

Paris and More

First and foremost, what happened last weekend was horrible and our hearts go out to everyone impacted by this terrorist attack. I hope that the world sees peace at some time in my remaining life.  People are putting themselves in harm’s way every day trying to keep us all safe.  We remember them too. It’s a sad world we live in. Now to the Markets Ugh – last week was…

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Chris Christie

GDP, Earnings and a Victory Lap

October was a great month for stocks. The returns basically blanked the losses incurred in August and September. By month’s end, the Dow Jones Industrials recorded a gain of 8.8%, the S&P 500 Index rose 8.6% and the Russell 2000 rose 5.5%. The Dow and the S&P were the best monthly gains in four years. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The initial third quarter (Q3) GDP report was weaker than expected,…

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