Buying Low and Selling High

Eight Straight Great to Date

Last week was the 8th anniversary of one of the greatest buying opportunities of most of our lifetimes.  As you can see below, it was obvious to most investors that March 9th, 2009 was going to be the bottom… I’m sure everyone knows I’m kidding…I remember someone in my industry saying to me, “this could literally go to zero.” Yes, he literally said, “literally.” Now, eight years later, this bull…

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VIDEO: It Can Be Hard To Do Nothing

“Here’s an interesting fact – Did you know that a during a penalty kick in soccer, the goal keeper has the best chance of stopping the shot by staying still and not diving left or right? It’s true – there are studies to prove it. The keeper has a 33% chance of stopping the shot if they stay in the center of the goal, a 14% chance if they move…

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Monument’s Economic Review

Check out our latest video!  Our Economic Review video breaks down 2016 into four distinct sections, discusses what affected the market in each of those periods, and then goes into what’s ahead for 2017. WATCH THE VIDEO>  

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dow-20000-newspaper

Quick Thoughts on DOW 20,000

Dow 20,000 is the talk of the town. There is no escaping it. As I write this (Wednesday at 10:36 am), the index is a mere 0.60% away. But a question being asked, explicitly and implicitly, is this: “Do the current valuation levels (specifically P/E Ratios) signal a market top?” My opinion? Not by themselves. Research from LPL Financial and Barclays indicates a weak relationship between one measure of stock…

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market is high

Stocks Are On A Roll – What Now?

Last week was a busy one for me. I had a dinner meeting every evening and there was a resounding theme, both implicit and explicit, in almost every conversation we had – “Is now a good time to add money to portfolios or start taking chips off the table?” Answer: I don’t know. How could I? But that still does not absolve me from needing to look at things and…

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Quarterly Review – Monument Style

Well, the first quarter of 2016 is in the books. I thought I’d start with a quote: “And when it’s over, I press rewind though.” – Fetty Wap Oh wait – I meant these quotes… “You are not able to predict what will happen nor when it will happen…and neither am I. Only charlatans and fools believe this is actually possible. I reminded everyone of this many times, including in…

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Recession

There is Definitely a Recession Coming

I just don’t know when. I’m of the opinion that we simply don’t see enough facts suggesting we are on the cusp of a recession. There are a lot of people out in the press calling for one and I think it’s an attempt to gain headlines with outlandish statements…even if they are not running for President. Rest assured that the press will remind you that there is always a…

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Economic Review Video: January, 2016

As you may remember, last July we created the first set of videos for our new Economic Review video series.  Now we are releasing a new video that reviews what has changed in the economy since then and what we believe we will see moving forward.  Thanks for tuning in!   Important Disclosure Information for “Economic Review Video: January, 2016” Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of…

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reverse psychology

What a Bear Market Means to You

I think this is a pull back and not a recession. But I could be wrong – and here’s why… I DON’T KNOW. And here’s more bad news… YOU DON’T EITHER. And to make matters even worse… NEITHER DOES ANYONE ELSE! And for all those people out there about to unleash their “I told you so…” and their “I saw this whole thing coming,” you need to do a few…

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Spicoli

“Gee, Mr. Spicoli, I Don’t Know”

The past week had me quoting the famous scene from the 1982 classic Fast Times at Ridgemont High around the office on an hourly basis…. Mr. Hand: “Mr. Spicoli, why do you shamelessly waste my time?” Jeff Spicoli: “I don’t know.” Mr. Hand: “I like that. ‘I don’t know.’ That’s nice … ‘Mr Hand, will I pass this class?’ Gee, Mr. Spicoli, I don’t know!” After a decent period of…

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Clinton

“What Should I Do Now?”

First, if you have not seen the three-part video series we launched last week, please go see it.  We recorded it before this whole mess began and it outlines our thoughts on the market and recessions. Second, if you are SERIOUSLY asking yourself or anyone else any version of the question, “What should I do now?” you have an investment strategy problem that needs to be fixed because it’s probably…

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Tony Awards 6.8.15

Are Things Getting Better While The Market Sells Off?

It was another poor week across the board with all major asset classes selling off, the dollar up, and Emerging Markets equities underperforming despite some pretty decent economic data. I think the last few weeks can be summed up as equity markets re-pricing down based on the increasing risk that the Fed will tighten, Greece getting greasy, and the reported illiquidity in bond markets. I think the Greek volatility should…

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